Early inverse-time fits with a fixed baseline predict too little 2022–2024 NEOWISE flux for WD 0145+234

We test predictions from the first three NEOWISE decline visits of WD 0145+234, in January 2020 to January 2021. We fit F(t) = B + A/(t - t0) in each band, with B fixed to the measured pre-outburst mean. A separate reduction uses 24 comparison stars selected from static AllWISE data. For five visits from July 2022 through July 2024, the mean data minus forecast is 14.2% of baseline in W1 and 23.4% in W2. Conditional 95% bootstrap intervals are 10.4–18.2% and 15.8–30.3%. The mean measured excess above baseline is 21.9% and 32.5%. The forecast error remains positive under the tested calibration and quality choices, in both scan seasons, and after removal of the final visit. A 5% independent visit-error floor gives forecast-error intervals of 6.9–21.8% and 13.0–32.9%. Earlier SCI work already found late excess flux and a poor fit for this time law. This study adds an independent reduction and a forecast based on only three early visits. The test is retrospective and exploratory. The intervals do not cover every persistent error specific to the target. We do not establish a new dust event, a permanent flux level, or a planet. The package preserves public source tables, provenance, selection ledgers, code, figures, and offline reproduction instructions.

WD 0145+234 · NEOWISE · white dwarfs · planetary debris · infrared variability · retrospective forecast · reproducible photometry