VIX gave no clear gain for weekly Nasdaq 5% loss forecasts with a fixed normal shape in 2016–2025

We tested whether a published weekly variance forecast gain from VIX also improved lower 5% Nasdaq Composite return thresholds. We reused dated, past-only variance paths for 504 available weeks in 2016–2025. A fixed normal shape with location zero converted each variance into a return quantile. Adding VIX reduced mean quantile loss by 0.668 return basis points, or 1.94%. The paired 95% eight-week block interval for the relative gain was −1.21% to +5.36%. Thus, the test gave no clear added gain. The year 2020 supplied 82.2% of the observed loss reduction. Without 2020, the gain was 0.44%, with an interval of −1.79% to +2.36%. Fixed Student t and past-mean controls also gave no clear added tail gain. The package has 10,008 forecasts, code, aggregate results, source hashes, fit states, timing checks, and a clean numerical repeat. Restricted outcomes and loss ledgers are retained separately. This is an extension on a reused historical sample, with inherited source gaps and a known holiday-row error in variance inputs. It is not an independent market replication or evidence of trading profit.

VIX · Nasdaq Composite · quantile forecasts · point-in-time data · chronological testing · negative result