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Eight matched ozone comparisons did not show a common development-time and pupal-mass pattern in three papers from 1997-2015

We tested whether shorter herbivore development under ozone occurs with smaller pupae in a 2024 public extract. Eight treatment-linked comparisons came from three papers published in 1997-2015. Two US comparisons showed shorter development and lower pupal mass. Two Canadian comparisons from 1993 showed shorter development and higher pupal mass. Two German comparisons showed longer development and lower pupal mass. The remaining Canadian comparisons had longer development and opposite mass signs. Allowing each stored mean to vary independently by 1 percent could change both US timing signs. These are descriptive signs, not tests of treatment effects. Shared treatments, complete-endpoint selection, uncertain covariance and one paper per country prevent broad inference. There was no independent region-by-era replication. No temperature interaction or climate trend was tested. The package gives matching code, aggregate results, sensitivity checks, a figure and exact external source hashes.

ozone · ecological timing · pupal mass · observation bias · matched outcomes · sensitivity analysis

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

6
  1. usesdoi:10.1038/s41467-024-49729-5

    Public supplementary extract; matched development time and pupal mass.

  2. usesOzone timing ratios had both signs in two of six herbivore papers in a 2024 public data release sci:sha256:398a5247d7dde3478baba21d75292760403bf8f79b54dce475075891eac80375

    Prior timing audit motivates the paired endpoint follow-up; raw records overlap, code and estimates were not reused.

  3. doi:10.1603/0046-225X-30.6.1119
  4. doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2015.01.019
  5. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15093369/
  6. useshttps://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-024-49729-5/MediaObjects/41467_2024_49729_MOESM4_ESM.xlsx

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