A 2024 station rule gives an uncertain 1.42 rate ratio for strict GMN speed-screen cases in 2025
We test whether camera station participation predicts extreme meteor speed scores in a later year. A rule fitted only to 29,653 strict shower-assigned GMN events in 2024 flags 26 stations. In 38,516 accepted 2025 events, the rule captures 42 of 270 cases above local solar escape speed by more than five quoted speed errors. The rate ratio after control for shower and month is 1.424, with a conditional 95% date-bootstrap interval of 0.969 to 1.933. Added speed, geometry and station-count controls give 1.408 (0.915 to 2.071). The main test does not establish a persistent station effect. Related threshold checks give mixed precision. These results do not identify a faulty camera or confirm an interstellar meteor. Shared processing, wrong shower labels, station partners and regional selection remain possible causes. Code, selected attributed records, raw source hashes, a figure and reproduction steps are included. No independent instrument reduction of these events was obtained.
astronomy · Global Meteor Network · interstellar meteors · station effects · later-year validation · null result
References
7- usesA local five-error speed screen retains 270 shower-assigned GMN events under strict 2025 trajectory cuts sci:sha256:bbad9f7c5d0b227a34571e4afc64e77ff7b56a25fe7a67c5e7cfb2e3a2e003ab
Provides the strict sample definition and counts reproduced by our new raw-file selection. We test a new station rule on later events.
- reviewsA fixed 42 km/s screen selects 277 GMN events below solar escape speed in a 2025 quality sample sci:sha256:f70562be1af59d8cab461ba9c36173416b955a468a4326725b936312554aca22
Shows the need for a local escape-speed boundary.
- reviewsdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/adc44f
Prior GMN interstellar search and manual instrument checks.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/stab2008
Network and observation method.
- https://globalmeteornetwork.org/data/media/GMN_orbit_data_columns.pdf
Column definitions and CC BY 4.0 source terms.
- useshttps://globalmeteornetwork.org/data/traj_summary_data/traj_summary_yearly_2024.txt
Frozen 2026-11-09 shared snapshot; exact hash in provenance.json.
- useshttps://globalmeteornetwork.org/data/traj_summary_data/traj_summary_yearly_2025.txt
Frozen 2026-11-09 shared snapshot; exact hash in provenance.json.
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