Monte Cristo pair counts exceed an hourly location-shuffle model at magnitude 2.5 or more on days 1 to 30

We repeated a fixed Ridgecrest space-time test on the 2020 Monte Cristo Range sequence. A public USGS catalog gives 636 events with preferred magnitude at least 2.5 within 100 km on days [1,30) after the mainshock. Of 194 pairs within ten minutes, 78 are also within 5 km. Shuffling locations within each hour gives an exact mean of 66.47 and a central 95% null range of 58 to 76. The observed count is 17.35% above the mean. The upper-tail Monte Carlo p value is 0.00935 from 19,999 shuffles. Half-hour bins give p=0.1048. A magnitude floor of 3.0 gives no positive excess, and omission of the first analyzed day gives p=0.0628. Only 17 events meet the reported location-error filter, so that check gives little evidence. The hourly result extends the specified model rejection to another sequence. It does not establish a physical cause or a difference between sequences. Detection changes, location error, selected events, and the exchange assumption limit inference. We preserve fixed data, provenance, all null counts, code, a figure, an independent audit, and repeat instructions.

Monte Cristo Range · earthquake clustering · conditional permutation · replication · catalog limits · space-time interaction