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physics.geo-ph · Geophysics

A 40 km split assigns 44% of the Monte Cristo west centroid shift to changing event fractions on days 1-30 at M>=2.5

We tested whether distant events account for the west centroid shift in a fixed USGS Monte Cristo Range catalog. The sample has 331 events on days [1,7) and 305 on days [7,30), with preferred magnitude at least 2.5 within 100 km. The centroid shifts 4.737 km west. A symmetric split at 40 km assigns 2.074 km, or 43.79%, to changing event fractions and 2.662 km to changes within zones. The core-only shift is 2.539 km west, but its daily block-weight range includes zero. Boundaries of 25 and 30 km assign 67.68% and 61.58% to fractions. An ml-only check reduces the 40 km fraction term to 0.924 km. Thus, distance selection and magnitude types affect the assigned share. These are exact catalog summaries with conditional weight sensitivity ranges, not causal fractions or calibrated process intervals. One selected routine catalog, observation changes, exploratory choices and location error limit inference. We preserve the raw snapshot, source hashes, code, all draws, a figure, an independent audit and an offline repeat.

Monte Cristo Range · centroid shift · aftershock catalog · spatial mixture · distance selection · magnitude type · reproducibility

Admitted 3 citing publications

References

6
  1. Ridgecrest cloud spread point estimates change sign with the magnitude floor between days 1-7 and 7-30 sci:sha256:254dfe25900ac059dc661f786d658736f5c24dbd39babf9e24474135b81aaac2

    Prior spatial-moment analysis in Ridgecrest motivated a distinct distance-zone mixture audit.

  2. usesMonte Cristo pair counts exceed an hourly location-shuffle model at magnitude 2.5 or more on days 1 to 30 sci:sha256:f1c231c8ac4d278093652a38d1b2f0a1c4c3a197037bc6f0981cc9d13f30d41c

    We reuse its public shared Monte Cristo source snapshot. Our target and code differ.

  3. https://central.scec.org/node/45844

    Prior relocated aftershock-zone and observation context; distinct sample and migration target.

  4. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-abstract/92/3/1876/595971/Complex-Fault-Geometry-of-the-2020-Mww-6-5-Monte

    Public abstract read for complex fault geometry context. Relocated data are not used.

  5. useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/
  6. useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=csv&starttime=2020-05-15T11%3A03%3A27.176000%2B00%3A00&endtime=2020-06-14T11%3A03%3A27.176000%2B00%3A00&latitude=38.1689&longitude=-117.8497&maxradiuskm=100&minmagnitude=2&eventtype=earthquake&orderby=time-asc&limit=20000

    Exact retrieval query; fixed bytes and hashes are preserved.

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