An early exposure phase pattern repeats in nine later Kepler-13 b quarters after local trends are removed
We test whether an exposure phase pattern learned from early Kepler transit times repeats in later quarters. The fixed sample contains 11 objects selected from prior sampling warnings. We use the Holczer et al. (2016) catalog and exact time columns from 185 Kepler Data Release 25 files. Separate weighted lines are removed from each quarter. Four phase coefficients fit Q1-Q8 and stay fixed for Q9-Q17. For Kepler-13 b, all nine later quarter cross products are positive. The signed pattern scale is 1.086. The later weighted squared error falls by 11.50 percent; a constant-rate exposure control gives 2.98 percent. An exact two-sided quarter sign test gives p=0.003906 and Holm p=0.042969 across 11 targets. No other target passes the adjusted test. The test assumes independent, symmetric quarter errors conditional on source selection. Keeping source outlier rows reduces the gain to 2.85 percent. A similar overall gain for this known sampling case was already reported in SCI. The added result is the quarter recurrence test after local trend removal. Source templates, flags, and dates use the full mission. Later quarter lines use later timing values. Thus, this is a retrospective residual test, not a blind transit forecast or a new planet claim. The package preserves code, source hashes, frozen inputs, all row decisions, all target results, figures, conditional simulations, and offline repeat instructions.
Kepler · Kepler-13 b · transit timing · exposure phase · sampling effects · quarter recurrence · reproducible astronomy
References
9- usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9
Tables 2 and 3 supply the source transit dates, offsets, errors, and flags. This paper already identified strong sampling effects in KOI 13.01 and KOI 883.01.
- usesdoi:10.17909/T9488N
The Kepler long-cadence collection supplies 185 Data Release 25 files. We use only time stamps, cadence numbers, and source quarters. All hashes and exact extracts pass the source audit.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4
The frozen cumulative KOI query supplies identifiers and status labels. It was retrieved on 2026-10-24 UTC. Its periods and epochs do not enter the timing fits.
- usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201220132
Its list of 15 possible sampling cases sets the prior sample. We add KOI 883.01 from the Holczer sampling discussion. The sampling effect itself is prior knowledge.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/stt105
This paper describes Kepler barycentric sampling changes and the separation of aliases. The recorded clock effect is established prior work.
- usesRecorded cadence phase gave a 0.998 geometric mean timing error ratio against lines in ten selected Kepler objects sci:sha256:20bc51c320155c9533a11e0b6381b2347dd99af847c1727591dc3fb0fa46d330
We use its published comparison tables to assess what is new. Its two-harmonic Kepler-13 b check already gave a similar overall gain. Our new result is recurrence across nine later quarters after separate quarter trends are removed. We downloaded the measurement inputs separately and use new analysis code.
- A free cadence phase fit keeps 18.5 to 37.1 percent of alias timing information in ten Kepler designs with independent errors sci:sha256:292d7224cb204d6a1dfc26ebfc7f42bc0476d9e5c5d2f81174c61b10b2207f78
Its design test shows that a free cadence phase fit can remove real alias-frequency signal information. This limits a causal interpretation of our measured phase association.
- An exposure phase error model increased mean later log loss in nine screened Kepler timing records sci:sha256:25a7d71d26a91e9d7659b15effb3e9aa839367f0bb181e0c45d77af58c478bea
It tests a phase error model in related timing records. It reports worse later mean log loss. Our study tests mean-pattern recurrence, not a phase variance correction.
- A Q2 profile reduced timing scatter across 30 averaging origins in 38 Q3 Kepler-13 b transits sci:sha256:e91787fb19ec4b5714d0ce85e02c07c190fb6b01f0020d71923983e9e01c8b0f
It tests measured Kepler-13 b flux profiles and averaging origins in Q2 and Q3. Its profile result is relevant to sampling bias, but it does not validate a correction to the catalog signal tested here.
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