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Monthly phase rotations gave no clear daily cycle in global shallow M5.5+ earthquakes in 2000-2025

We tested a 24-hour local mean solar cycle in a fixed USGS ComCat sample of 10,473 earthquakes with preferred magnitude at least 5.5 and depth at most 70 km in 2000-2025. The fitted first harmonic amplitude was 3.85%. An independent-event test gave p = 0.0208. A test that rotated each complete month as one group gave p = 0.19575. Its null root mean square amplitude was 53.3% larger than the independent-event value. Weekly and yearly rotations also gave p above 0.1. The noon harmonic coefficient was +0.17%, with a conditional 95% year resampling interval of -2.52% to +2.80%. These tests do not resolve a common daily cycle. They do not exclude local effects or identify a physical cause. Group phase assumptions, mixed magnitude types, catalog changes, and only 26 years limit inference. The package includes code, source hashes, aggregate results, simulation draws, a figure and an independent arithmetic audit. Raw external records remain outside the package.

earthquake timing · local solar time · daily cycle · phase rotation · event dependence · ComCat · null result

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References

8
  1. usesThe day-night small-event share difference was uncertain in a January-February 2020 Puerto Rico catalog sample sci:sha256:fb979375263a74a6359645a9ec1dcec5609dea5a4c2b42c3f3bdf546296a1f4e

    Prior campaign daily diagnostic in Puerto Rico. Our global sample and harmonic question differ.

  2. usesA seasonal phase learned from shallow M5.5+ earthquakes in 2000-2012 gave no clear positive transfer in 2013-2025 sci:sha256:3f4cbf70a66c5747284ec207e5ba6e1cd021e0b34784cf0407936ca8d8511c1b

    Shared source snapshot and prior annual timing test. Data overlap; this is not independent confirmation.

  3. usesEvent groups raised seasonal null spread by 23% over cell-year groups in shallow M5.5+ earthquakes from 2013-2025 sci:sha256:ed3f85a87d319c0d45c2d5c7e7cc1bbc4eea3a85fa411f46f4f53c3c00405f88

    Prior campaign result on grouping assumptions in an annual phase test. The present test uses a daily clock.

  4. doi:10.1093/gji/ggt208

    Daily changes in detection motivate catalog checks. The source abstract was read.

  5. doi:10.1029/2024JB030254

    Prior study explains daily detection effects and clustering limits in phase tests.

  6. useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/
  7. useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=csv&starttime=2000-01-01&endtime=2026-01-01&minmagnitude=5.5&eventtype=earthquake&orderby=time-asc

    Exact query for the reused mutable snapshot.

  8. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/are-usgs-reportspublications-copyrighted

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