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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolution

Spring wetness showed no clear link to repeat calls in 18 frog and toad groups in NAAMP records, 2001–2015

Wet springs can change frog presence and the chance that a survey hears calls. We tested whether a known wet-spring increase in seasonal call records also occurs in repeat calls. We rebuilt 267,629 three-visit stop histories from open NAAMP records for 18 groups in 2001–2015. The main model used 22,513 route-year-group rows on 558 routes. It controlled route and observer, year, and wetness in three earlier summers. The equal-group mean repeat ratio rose by 0.198 percentage points per unit of spring PDSI. Its nominal 95% joint climate-division interval was -0.094 to +0.491. The positive-tail rank among 92 climate shifts was 0.118. All seven checks also had intervals that included zero. The earlier positive link to seasonal any-call fractions was reproduced. An exact ten-site model showed that the mean repeat ratio can rise with occupancy when call probabilities stay fixed. The data leave the split between site occupancy and calling changes unresolved. The package includes raw data, full stop histories, code, source hashes, figures and reproduction instructions.

amphibians · NAAMP · drought · calling surveys · repeated detection · occupancy · finite samples · open data

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

5
  1. usesSpring wetness predicted frog and toad calling occupancy on 1,036 NAAMP routes in the eastern and central USA (2001–2015), but wetness in the three previous summers did not sci:sha256:9024f830dbd63c96f78cf3c37c69df4d40aa1fa4b3c50d7a774c189c997e48a8

    We use its fixed climate-division mapping, taxon selection rules, source archive and code helpers. We reproduce its seasonal detection coefficients and add the three-run histories and repeat-call test.

  2. usesdoi:10.5066/F7G44NG0

    USGS NAAMP call survey data release. We use the exact archived raw release.

  3. doi:10.1670/0022-1511(2005)039%5B0627:madaso%5D2.0.co;2

    Prior work modelled anuran detection and occupancy on NAAMP routes in Maryland.

  4. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00147.x

    Prior work models abundance index data from anuran calling surveys and variation in detection.

  5. doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00439.x

    Prior work shows limits of occupancy models with different detection probabilities among sites.

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