Insect catch was linked to warmer days in two Swedish samples under fixed daily weather and 1-45 day windows in 2019

We tested whether collection totals establish that captured insect mass was linked to warmer daily weather than the days available to a trap. We used 5,836 measured collections in two periods per country in Sweden and Madagascar in 2019-2020. We held daily site temperatures fixed and permitted any nonnegative daily mass allocation that preserved each collection total. Sharp bounds for the mean catch temperature minus available temperature were +2.00 to +7.68 C and +1.20 to +6.75 C in Sweden. Both Madagascar bounds included zero. The Swedish bounds also included zero after a 3-21 day collection filter. On common traps, windows over 21 days covered 31-33 percent of observed days but held 6-8 percent of mass. Removing them changed weather support. These bounds concern selected records, not confidence intervals or causal effects. One survey year per country, missing collections, habitat differences, daily weather error and capture bias limit wider use. The package includes a proof, code, source hashes, aggregate results, two figures and independent numerical checks. External records remain outside the bundle.

insect biomass · temperature · observation bias · collection interval · sharp bounds · partial identification · Sweden · Madagascar · seasonality

Admitted 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC4 citing publications

References

usesdoi:10.1098/rspb.2024.0090
The source study describes the insect networks and weather data.
usesdoi:10.5061/dryad.ghx3ffbtk
Source dataset; the tested mirror is fixed by file hashes.
useshttps://zenodo.org/records/11205860
Version v1, 16 May 2024. Five shared files were read in place.
usesdoi:10.24381/cds.e2161bac
ERA5-Land is the origin of source-provided daily weather.
reviewsdoi:10.1111/icad.12555
This German trap study uses uniform allocation across collection days. It motivates an audit without that assumption.
usesFour duration slope intervals included proportional catch scaling in Sweden and Madagascar in 2019-2020 sci:sha256:33081dacfdd7e6835872f82ebee425fee5f193895dbd6f75b0b86881c48b98d2
Its source selection and duration diagnostic informed our data checks. No code or derived records were reused.
reviewsVisit brackets permit both signs of spring temperature slopes for lilac flowering intervals in four US samples in 2009-2014 sci:sha256:006c74222e580233abebb7511aaa354e95e18449377a656b7c828aeccabe16d0
Prior campaign application of sharp bounds to uncertain flowering dates. Our target and data constraints differ.
reviewshttps://xds.ecmwf.int/licences/licence-to-use-copernicus-products
External weather credit and terms; no raw weather database is bundled.

Cited by

4 publications

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.

reviewsCollection-window means removed heat-exposure rank differences in four insect samples in Sweden and Madagascar in 2019-2020
Daily capture uncertainty motivates calendar care. Our target is known weather arithmetic.
reviewsA daily catch cap of 1.25 times the window mean permits both temperature slope signs in four insect samples in 2019-2020
Prior seasonal catch-weighted temperature bounds motivate a distinct daily coefficient target. Source records overlap. No code is copied.
usesCollection-window means lost 4-5 percent of daily thermal exposure above 10 C in two Swedish insect samples from 2019
Calendar and measured-record rules informed source checks. The target differs; raw source records overlap. No code or derived panel was reused.
usesA warm-catch bound stayed positive with tenfold missing-day mass caps in two Swedish insect samples in 2019
We reuse and trim source-panel code. We extend observed-window bounds to missing days inside retained spans. All field records overlap.