Kepler DR25 injections with durations below 1.5 hours have lower recovery in 129 matched pairs at expected MES 6–20
We tested recovery of artificial transits below 1.5 hours in the public Kepler DR25 INJ1 table. We selected 46,412 injections. Each had at least four valid transits, period below 350 days, duration below 15 hours, and expected MES from 6 to 20. MES is the multiple event statistic, a measure of signal strength. We matched 129 short injections to 129 injections with durations from 1.5 to less than 3 hours. The match used seven recorded properties. Recovery was 22/129 and 49/129. The difference was −20.9 percentage points. Its 95% interval was −30.9 to −11.2 points from bootstrap samples of sky groups. No matched record had the ambiguous recovery flag 2. We also tested predictions on 97 short injections excluded from model fitting. Adding duration to signal, stellar, noise, and geometry controls reduced Brier score from 0.15959 to 0.10939. The score improvement interval was 0.02098 to 0.08412. This interval conditions on the fitted models. This exploratory result applies to the specified subset. Remaining control differences, imperfect expected MES, and the artificial population prevent a causal interpretation or a general correction for planet counts. The package includes source tables, provenance, code, matched identifiers, predictions, figures, and reproduction checks. We report no new planet.
Kepler DR25 · transit recovery · short transits · pixel injections · survey completeness · matched comparison · probability calibration · reproducible astronomy
References
6- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA14
We use the complete on-target DR25 INJ1 pixel injection table from this NASA Exoplanet Archive data collection.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA6
We use the q1_q17_dr25_stellar delivery for stellar and noise controls. The exact query and returned bytes are preserved.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA34
KSCI-19110-001 defines the injection columns, expected MES, search durations, and limits of the experiment.
- doi:10.3847/1538-3881/abab0b
This is the main prior analysis of the DR25 pixel injections. The present study tests the below-1.5-hour subset with matched pairs and predictions on stars excluded from fitting.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4365/aab4f9
This work describes the separate Robovetter stage and catalog completeness. Our outcome is the earlier pipeline recovery record.
- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/229/2/30
This work describes the DR25 stellar delivery used for the recorded stellar controls.
Cited by
5 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesSelected supplemental Kepler DR25 fits have a median radius ratio error of −11.1% at injected b ≥ 0.8 and expected MES 8–20
We use its checked source-data route and confirm the input hashes with a fresh download. We test radius errors with separate code.
- usesKepler DR25 supplemental fits give median radius-ratio errors of +4.1% at input b<0.5 and −10.2% at b≥0.8 in selected recoveries with measured MES 7.1–10
This prior study led the investigation to INJ1 and the undefined recovery flag 2. Its preserved source hash agrees with a fresh download. The present analysis code was written separately.
- usesAdding the long CDPP slope reduces Brier score in a fixed Kepler DR25 recovery model for FGK dwarfs at expected MES 6–20
Guided source retrieval and the audit of undefined recovery flag 2. Its duration question differs from this test.
- usesImpact parameter gives an uncertain Brier score gain in a tree recovery model for 41,203 Kepler DR25 injections
We use its source table copies, provenance, IPAC parsing route, and noise-slope method. New NASA downloads verify identical source bytes. Our test adds input b after duration and radius ratio, with whole-group validation.
- usesKepler DR25 recovery near rotation-period ratios differs by +3.0 points in 268 matched pairs, with a 95% interval of −2.2 to +8.2
We reuse its verified NASA source tables and provenance. Its matching method, duration result, and recovery-flag audit informed this design.