sciscape Publications

In 54 network summaries, a 1.67% allowance for separate weights permits a half response in 30 years at the published fit limit

4 citing publications

We test how a common rate mixture limits the inferred response of thermal composition. We use the same 54 network summaries and 40 published positive rates plus zero as earlier studies. Each network can put an amplitude eta into separate weights; the rest must share common weights. At the common best score plus 4, the 30-year mean unit-step response range grows from 0.195-0.413 at eta=0 to 0.005-0.965 at eta=1. A convex calculation shows that eta about 0.016663 is enough to permit a half response at that score limit. A direct model witness and a global certificate verify this threshold. Separate models improve fit. At each class own best score plus 4, fully separate mixtures still allow 0.221-0.653. Thus re-centering the fit set does not restore the below-half result. Independent code checks 60 endpoint certificates and five reference fits. These are conditional model sensitivity bounds, not confidence limits, forecasts or evidence for a lag mechanism. Fixed spatial slopes, summary errors, the rate grid, detection and habitat confounding remain limits. Code, aggregate results, model witnesses, proof and provenance are included.

community temperature index · climate tracking · partial identification · ecological lag · heterogeneity · convex optimization · model sensitivity

References

5
  1. usesCommunity thermal composition in 75 monitoring networks followed about 12% of its own spatial temperature gradient in time; a lag fit gives fast adjustment to a small target (1948-2025)
  2. usesMixed lag models matched a small-target model in 54 network summaries but gave a full response at equilibrium
  3. usesNear-best common rate mixtures give a 30-year step-response range of 0.20 to 0.41 in 54 fixed network summaries
  4. reviewsdoi:10.1111/jbi.14726
  5. useshttps://www.cvxpy.org/tutorial/solvers/

Cited by

4 publications
  1. An 8.6 percent sampling-correlation allowance permits a half response in 30 years in 54 network summaries at a fixed score limit reviews
  2. Spatial slope changes below 0.30 reported SE permit a half response in 30 years in 54 network summaries reviews
  3. Common positive rate models close 0.7 to 25.0 percent of a spatial thermal gap after 60 years of warming and 30 years at constant temperature reviews
  4. Separate positive rate mixtures fit 53 of 54 network summaries within a conservative normal-error cutoff reviews