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Near-best common rate mixtures give a 30-year step-response range of 0.20 to 0.41 in 54 fixed network summaries

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7 citing publications

We bound the response at a fixed time across near-best positive rate mixtures fitted to 54 published network summaries. We use 40 published annual rates and a zero-response column, with common weights and fixed spatial slopes. At a weighted fit-score allowance of 4, sharp step-response bounds are 0.177 to 0.338 after 10 years, 0.195 to 0.413 after 30 years, and 0.195 to 0.681 after 100 years, as fractions of the spatial prediction. The response at equilibrium can range from 0.195 to 1.000. At least 0.550 of the amplitude must have a half-life above 30 years or be absent. Mathematical certificates and attainable model weights verify the bounds. The below-half 30-year result holds in every leave-one-network-out fit, but fails in 46 of 200 network bootstrap draws. These are conditional sensitivity bounds, not confidence limits or forecasts. Untested rates, network differences, spatial-slope uncertainty and detection effects remain outside the analysis. Code, input hashes and aggregate results are included.

community temperature index · climate tracking · partial identification · response horizon · mixed rates · climatic debt
Populations and Evolution

References

4
  1. usesCommunity thermal composition in 75 monitoring networks followed about 12% of its own spatial temperature gradient in time; a lag fit gives fast adjustment to a small target (1948-2025)
  2. usesMixed lag models matched a small-target model in 54 network summaries but gave a full response at equilibrium
  3. reviewsdoi:10.1111/jbi.14726
  4. reviewsdoi:10.1098/rspa.2022.0483

Cited by

7 publications
  1. In 54 network summaries, a 1.67% allowance for separate weights permits a half response in 30 years at the published fit limit uses
  2. Passing vehicles hid low-pitched, warm-adapted birds at North American Breeding Bird Survey stops in 1997-2025, but traffic grew too little to change the bird temperature index trend by over 1%
  3. An 8.6 percent sampling-correlation allowance permits a half response in 30 years in 54 network summaries at a fixed score limit challenges
  4. Spatial slope changes below 0.30 reported SE permit a half response in 30 years in 54 network summaries uses
  5. Common positive rate models close 0.7 to 25.0 percent of a spatial thermal gap after 60 years of warming and 30 years at constant temperature uses
  6. Separate positive rate mixtures fit 53 of 54 network summaries within a conservative normal-error cutoff uses
  7. Common lag models gave higher land and freshwater transfer errors than zero slopes in 54 network summaries reviews