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Passing vehicles hid low-pitched, warm-adapted birds at North American Breeding Bird Survey stops in 1997-2025, but traffic grew too little to change the bird temperature index trend by over 1%

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Question: bird community temperature indices (CTI) of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) follow only a small part of the spatial CTI-temperature slope. Known detection artefacts make the CTI trend larger. Can roadside traffic, which masks low-pitched songs, make it smaller? Data: BBS 2026 release, 1997-2025: 3.1 million stop counts in 62,179 runs on about 4,700 routes with the number of vehicles that passed during each 3-minute count; song frequencies of Sagar et al. (2024, CC0); GHCN_CAMS May-July temperature. Method (plan written before outcomes): Poisson pseudo-likelihood and linear models with stop x observer and run fixed effects, so that each stop is compared with itself on other mornings; 334 per-species models and a random-effects meta-regression; vehicle and CTI trends with route x observer effects; 100-draw route bootstrap; a traffic-standardized CTI. Results: each passing vehicle reduced counts by 0.83%, by 1.99% below 2 kHz and by 0.50% at 4-5 kHz. Species loss decreased by 0.40 percentage points per kHz (95% CI 0.26-0.57; inside families 0.26). Warm-adapted species sing lower (-0.81 C per kHz), and each vehicle lowered the stop CTI by 0.0019 C (CI 0.0012-0.0027). The observer noise flag reduced counts by about 13%. Traffic per stop increased by only 0.072 vehicles per decade (about +27% since 1998). Thus the bias of the within-observer CTI trend (0.071 C per decade; temperature 0.328) was -0.00014 C per decade (CI -0.00021 to -0.00007), 0.19% of the trend (0.26-0.30% with concave forms) and about 0.15% of the gap to the spatial expectation (0.165). The traffic-standardized trend differed by +0.00003 C per decade, and the spatial slope did not change (0.504). Vehicles remove low-pitched birds, but long observer tenure removes high-pitched birds; this opposite signature supports a hearing mechanism for the tenure drift. Conclusion: traffic masking is real but does not hide climate tracking; the known detection artefacts do not explain weak tracking. Limitations: constant noise from distant roads and long-term road avoidance are not measured; no vehicle data before 1997; 17 species lack song frequency.

Breeding Bird Survey · traffic noise · acoustic masking · song frequency · detection bias · community temperature index · climate tracking · climate debt · roadside surveys · birds · North America · natural experiment · species temperature index

References

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  1. Bird community temperature index followed less than 10% of May-July warming on 5,294 North American survey routes in 1970-2024 with route and observer controls
  2. Bird species centroids moved about 35 km north on 1,471 fixed North American survey routes from 1975-1989 to 2010-2024, at about 14% of the isotherm shift and not in proportion to it
  3. Climate suitability change predicted little of US bird abundance change in 2010-2025: 0.05 per log unit within species on survey routes, and no species-level forecast skill
  4. Finnish atlas range margins of southern birds moved north more slowly in 2006-10 to 2022-25 than before while isotherms moved fast; lower detection in 2022-25 explains part of this
  5. Demersal species redistribution offset 24% of bottom temperature change in 11 North American trawl series in 1970-2020, but the offset came from the Northeast US fall survey
  6. Animal first-detection dates at 99 Japanese weather stations became later than local warming predicts, by about 1.1 days per decade more than plant dates, in 1953-2020
  7. Australian temperate reef fish thermal index followed 3-year SST at 0.35 C per C in 2008-2020 and again in 2021-2026, but only through region-wide year changes (549 sites)
  8. Community thermal composition in 75 monitoring networks followed about 12% of its own spatial temperature gradient in time; a lag fit gives fast adjustment to a small target (1948-2025)
  9. uses, supportsLong-serving Breeding Bird Survey observers recorded fewer high-pitched birds; because cold-adapted species sing higher, this drift made 31-77% of the within-observer CTI warming trend (1966-2025)
  10. Year-to-year temperature responses of 320 North American bird species followed 5-14% of own spatial gradients, with no clear lasting part; 49 British butterfly species followed about 50% in 2 summers
  11. Bird abundance gradients between nearby US survey routes kept 69% of the regional temperature gradient per degree with 5 km route-path climate; year-to-year tracking stayed at about 3% (1966-2025)
  12. US breeding bird communities sort by temperature almost as strongly between nearby routes as across the continent, but in time they follow only 3-24% of this slope (BBS 1966-2025)
  13. Forest type explained about half of the gap between spatial and temporal bird community temperature slopes on 2,523 forested US routes (1966-2025), but not in open-habitat birds, the East, or species
  14. usesBBS observers recorded about 41% fewer birds that sing at 7 kHz or more after 20 years on a route; route x observer models put this loss into 1966-2025 trends of 446 species
  15. Linear hearing drift is not identified by bird survey turnover when observer cohort effects are free
  16. usesWarm springs act like a 1.5-day later survey per 1 C in Breeding Bird Survey counts of 317 species (1966-2025); this phenology-detection artefact is real but too small to explain weak climate tracking
  17. Near-best common rate mixtures give a 30-year step-response range of 0.20 to 0.41 in 54 fixed network summaries
  18. doi:10.5066/P144YU3S
  19. doi:10.5061/dryad.69p8cz99k
  20. doi:10.1098/rspb.2024.1908
  21. doi:10.1029/2007JD008470
  22. doi:10.1525/auk.2009.09056
  23. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027052

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