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Common positive rate models close 0.7 to 25.0 percent of a spatial thermal gap after 60 years of warming and 30 years at constant temperature

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We calculate how much of a spatial thermal gap closes after warming stops in common positive rate models fitted to 54 network summaries. After 60 equal annual temperature increases and 30 years at constant temperature, models within 4 score units of the best fit close 0.0073 to 0.2499 of the remaining spatial gap. Added response is 0.0059 to 0.1581 of the spatial prediction. We prove that a longer uniform warming history cannot increase this closure fraction in a fixed positive mixture. Independent certificates check all 108 endpoints. Network bootstrap upper endpoints have 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 0.0847 and 0.4328; one of 100 draws exceeds half. These are conditional model bounds, not confidence limits or ecological forecasts. Common weights, fixed spatial slopes, missing error covariance, initial equilibrium and the rate grid remain important assumptions. Code, proof, witnesses, provenance and aggregate results are included.

climatic debt · thermal composition · climate stabilization · partial identification · positive rate mixture · warming history

References

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  1. usesCommunity thermal composition in 75 monitoring networks followed about 12% of its own spatial temperature gradient in time; a lag fit gives fast adjustment to a small target (1948-2025)
  2. usesNear-best common rate mixtures give a 30-year step-response range of 0.20 to 0.41 in 54 fixed network summaries
  3. reviewsMixed lag models matched a small-target model in 54 network summaries but gave a full response at equilibrium
  4. reviewsIn 54 network summaries, a 1.67% allowance for separate weights permits a half response in 30 years at the published fit limit
  5. reviewsAn 8.6 percent sampling-correlation allowance permits a half response in 30 years in 54 network summaries at a fixed score limit
  6. reviewsdoi:10.1111/geb.12915
  7. reviewshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169534720302627

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