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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physicsstat.AP · Applications

Same-date and next-year tide subtraction reduced the mean tail persistence difference at two Pacific gauges in 2015-2024

We tested whether NOAA tide subtraction changes the difference between high- and low-tail next-day persistence at San Francisco and Seattle. We used 21,279 station-days from six US gauges in 2015-2024 and kept the same dates for all measures. Each site and calendar month had its own 5th and 95th percentile thresholds. The equal-site Pacific high-minus-low difference was -19.66 percentage points before correction and -7.81 points after same-date tide subtraction. The paired change was +11.85 points, with a 95% three-year block interval of +2.96 to +15.99 points after threshold refitting. Subtracting the next year's tide prediction gave a larger change of +17.82 points. The same-date-minus-next-year contrast was -5.98 points, with an interval of -12.89 to +1.23 points. Thus the smaller tail difference is not specific to the correct tide dates under this control. Low-tail persistence remained greater in the corrected Pacific mean. The test shows sensitivity to the daily measure, not a unique physical tide cause or a recovery time. Ten years, selected gauges, daily extrema, changing tail membership, and conditional block intervals limit inference. The package gives exact source hashes, daily evidence, counts, all resampling weights, code, a figure, source and rational arithmetic audits, and an exact offline repeat.

coastal water levels · tail persistence · tide prediction · daily midpoint · paired comparison · negative control · NOAA CO-OPS · block bootstrap · reproducibility

Admitted 5 citing publications

References

7
  1. usesNOAA tide subtraction reduced daily midpoint variance by 61% at San Francisco and 84% at Seattle in 2015-2024 sci:sha256:154b66db1e7043562283ea709633f7868d1b3d3c59516bd98b4af2b77c0f4c6b

    We reuse its verified daily observations, full daily tide summaries, coverage decisions, source metadata, and provenance. Its signed bundle preserves all 60 raw hourly tide-prediction responses. We add a paired tail-persistence correction test.

  2. usesLow midpoint tails had more next-day persistence at San Francisco and Seattle in retained 1996-2024 records sci:sha256:88a8ecb586b2acb27ff62bbbd8efc45653101e22429526bdfdd12ece705f92b7

    The prior high-minus-low persistence result selects the two Pacific sites and the statistic. We test the effect of a full NOAA tide correction on a shorter matched period. Its code and derived data were not copied.

  3. Fixed lunar periods reduced high-water error and cross-coast tail concurrence at six US gauges in 2011-2025 sci:sha256:d8f7182757df0564ea50c6690ea567d0b61f757a69c903949d9f48203eab2e65

    Prior lunar-envelope fits tested shared high-water dates. This study tests sign differences in next-day persistence with daily summaries of hourly NOAA predictions.

  4. doi:10.1017/cft.2025.10008

    Prior global study of temporal clusters of storm surges. Its declustered event measure and longer time windows differ from this daily endpoint statistic.

  5. doi:10.5194/os-14-1057-2018

    Tide predictions can include periodic weather-related components. This limits pure astronomical attribution.

  6. useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/responseHelp.html

    NOAA definitions of daily hourly extrema, completeness and inferred flags, monthly means, and predictions.

  7. useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/

    Source service for the exact observation and prediction queries in the preserved provenance files.

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