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physics.ao-ph · Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Fixed lunar periods reduced high-water error and cross-coast tail concurrence at six US gauges in 2011-2025

We tested a tide explanation for shared high-water dates at six US gauges. We fitted fixed lunar periods to daily maximum water level minus monthly mean in 1996-2010 and tested the fits in 2011-2025. The lunar model reduced mean squared error by 16.6% to 77.4% against a seasonal model. An equal-size control model with other periods raised error at all six gauges. Average same-date upper-tail concurrence across eight Atlantic-Pacific pairs fell from 1.104% to 0.271%. The paired conditional 95% interval for the change was -1.069 to -0.632 percentage points. Mean excess above a blocked year-pairing reference fell from 0.699 to -0.007 points. All eight cross-coast pairs passed the adjusted excess test before the lunar fit; none passed after it. Five same-coast pairs still passed. This supports a tide explanation for much of the cross-coast pattern. It does not isolate storm surge or prove a physical cause. Thresholds use the test-period distribution. The model fit alone uses earlier data. The intervals fix fitted models and thresholds. The package gives source hashes, daily evidence, predictions, code, reference draws, a figure, and source and count audits.

sea level · tides · harmonic regression · spatial dependence · upper tails · chronological validation

Admitted 9 citing publications

References

5
  1. usesMonthly mean removal retained high-water concurrence above a year-pairing reference at six US gauges in 1996-2025 sci:sha256:f4d67b9a7d6b2e5715e6a5d45ebe292c308857b2937a8914c105b9c139e2b5d4

    We reuse its verified daily evidence and source provenance. We test its proposed tide explanation with new fits and later-year evaluation.

  2. doi:10.1038/sdata.2016.107

    Prior work separates observed high water and predicted tide to study spatial extreme sea level and surge.

  3. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/harcon.html?id=8511171

    NOAA constituent speeds motivate fixed difference periods; we use no station amplitudes from this page.

  4. useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/responseHelp.html

    Official field definitions for daily maxima and quality flags.

  5. useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/

    Public data source; exact 30 query URLs and byte hashes are in files/provenance.json.

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