Summer rain gave no clear link to the next winter rain total in England in 1884-2024

We tested whether dry summers were followed by wetter winters in England. We used 141 pairs of June-August and following October-March country rain totals from fixed Met Office records. With a linear time control, the winter-on-summer slope was 0.093 mm per mm. The 95% five-year block interval was -0.102 to 0.300. Negative slopes would support rain compensation. The interval includes zero. It excludes full mm-for-mm compensation in this linear model. Wales and Scotland were secondary checks. The result does not show independence and does not measure groundwater, river flow or reservoir recovery. Country averages, one data product and a linear test limit the result. The package gives code, source hashes, aggregate results, bootstrap draws and a static figure. External data and seasonal records are excluded and can be read or made in separate scratch.

rainfall · drought · seasonal compensation · England · Wales · Scotland · null result