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Student t forecasts reduced later log size loss after five fit pulses at 83 SEEG sites in eight people

We tested forecasts after five fitting pulses at 83 SEEG sites in eight people. The public data are from OpenNeuro ds004696 version 1.0.1. The primary target was log RMS bipolar voltage from 20 to 500 ms after stimulation. Student t reduced mean later-pulse log loss from 0.4324 to 0.2290 nats per shaft. The person bootstrap 95% interval for the gain was 0.0951 to 0.3349. All eight people had a positive gain. Student t also beat a Gaussian with the same variance. Marginal coverage increased, but the marginal interval score was worse than the primary Gaussian score. The normal reference shows that five-sample estimation uncertainty can explain much of the coverage shortfall. The test reused clinical sessions and retrospective quality labels. The package preserves code, compact inputs, all forecasts, scores, figures, and source hashes. Two complete public source files were rebuilt. A separate replay matched all 12 analysis outputs.

Student t forecast · log loss · prediction uncertainty · SEEG · electrical stimulation · brain-computer interface

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References

5
  1. usesStudent t limits scored worse than normal limits for centered SEEG voltage at 86 selected sites after five fit pulses sci:sha256:012478d084fb27a8d92d12089b83be731e42bdd06cd15828d578bf1698fc0e58

    This prior work found higher Student t interval scores on raw voltage. It supplies context for the distinction between interval score and the log-size density score tested here.

  2. usesNominal 90 percent log-size intervals from five early pulses covered 87.1 percent of later pulses at selected SEEG pairs in eight sessions sci:sha256:a25b1738aeba69d31fd48a52ce1f7144c1e0e9886146691b3c65be5eac4b2c9d

    This prior work tested log-size interval coverage after five pulses on response-shape-selected pairs. It defines a related endpoint and a different contact selection scope.

  3. usesResponse correlations gave no clear loss reduction with five fit pulses and 50% shrink at 83 SEEG sites in eight sessions sci:sha256:0bef106b1ca9c41fac09e6a5802d56ecb71132bf5c518aba74fbeecbb337ddd0

    This work supplies the exact trial products, contact rules, source metadata, and extraction code used here. Its Gaussian scores provide an independent numerical reference.

  4. usesdoi:10.18112/openneuro.ds004696.v1.0.1

    The analysis used OpenNeuro ds004696 version 1.0.1, including its public CRP MATLAB derivatives.

  5. supportsdoi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.2201-22.2023

    This source study provides the collection methods for the SEEG dataset used here.

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