Full-bloom selection gave small estimated spring-slope changes in four US lilac samples in 1965-2008
We tested whether requiring full-bloom reports changed the first-bloom response to spring warmth in US lilac records from 1965-2008. Four East and West, early and late models compared the same plants with plant and year effects and winter controls. Selected-year minus all-year slopes ranged from -0.043 to +0.006 days per C. All four adjusted intervals included zero. Spring warmth predicted fewer full-bloom reports clearly only in the early western sample. Thus, weather-linked report selection did not give a large estimated change in this slope. This does not prove that missing reports cause no bias. The comparison excludes short plant records and cannot assess unobserved full-bloom dates. Missing visits, coarse weather, different regional plant types and few state clusters limit inference. The package includes exact panels, source hashes, code, all results, and independent coefficient checks.
phenology · observation bias · lilac · spring temperature · missing reports · selection diagnostic
References
6- usesWinter warmth did not show a common change in lilac spring slopes in four US samples from 1965 to 2008 sci:sha256:551302875a5c81f37d7854aa0bbefe4669a61810d9d3573f192717bbbf19b501
We reuse its exact first-bloom and weather panel and raw-data build code.
- reviewsFirst-to-full bloom gaps had uncertain warmth links in four US samples from 1965 to 2008 sci:sha256:a6bd7c1e84535d597843343c4a01f2a4bd059556507d1a74452d47094cc7f060
Prior stage-gap and reporting analysis motivates the new same-plant slope-selection diagnostic.
- usesdoi:10.1038/sdata.2015.38
- doi:10.5061/dryad.0262m
- useshttps://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5499b905e4b093dfafda3575
- useshttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ghcncams.html
Cited by
4 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesWhole-week first-to-full-bloom peaks were uncertain in four US lilac samples in 1965-2008
Paired panel and adapted raw-source build rules.
- reviewsSpring warmth was linked to fewer first-bloom records after leaf reports in two US lilac samples in 1965-1986
The prior full-bloom selection test motivates a test of first-bloom availability conditional on a leaf record.
- reviewsSpring warmth gave no clear link to missing end-bloom reports in four western US lilac samples from 1956 to 2008
Prior selection diagnostic for a different bloom stage.
- usesSeven-day delay bounds kept negative spring slopes in two western US lilac samples in 1965-2008
We reuse its exact files/prior_panel.csv and files/prior_build.py for a new calendar audit and reporting-delay sensitivity analysis. The full prior bundle was verified.