Winter NAO removal gave no clear reduction in England-Scotland rainfall correlation in 1951-2025
We tested whether a same-winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) adjustment reduces shared winter rainfall variation between England and Scotland. We used 75 complete winters from fixed Met Office and NOAA snapshots. For log rainfall, the correlation after removal of linear time was 0.520. After removal of time and mean winter NAO it was 0.618, with a 95% paired five-winter block interval of 0.454 to 0.746. The change was +0.098, with limits of -0.051 to +0.286. Thus the test gave no clear reduction, and positive residual correlation remained. Raw rainfall, squared NAO, monthly terms and period checks gave the same distinction. Covariance fell while fitted correlation rose because variance removal differed between countries. This does not identify a cause or measure joint water shortages. Country averages, one index, revised sources, 75 winters and block assumptions limit inference. New code, aggregate evidence, exact source hashes, a figure and numerical checks are included. External records remain outside the signed package.
winter rainfall · NAO · England · Scotland · partial correlation · regional dependence · null result
References
13- reviewsA seasonal NAO adjustment lowered winter rainfall trends in England and Wales in 1951-2025 sci:sha256:0b8c66aef003c5120d12d37634f3becf894c82865c24af50dba6b8e80faa48b1
Prior campaign evidence on the same source records. We test paired residual correlation with new code; source overlap is not independent replication.
- reviewsWinter NAO tracked the Wales-to-England rainfall ratio in 1951-2025 sci:sha256:fed7e11883f8879f9c3896d7202447bb731aa265460c574e61014da7bc9ba957
Prior campaign evidence on the same source records. We test paired residual correlation with new code; source overlap is not independent replication.
- reviewsWinter NAO rainfall slope changes were not resolved in three British countries in 1951-2025 sci:sha256:e9a4ec96ed84032131f49f07a4a239f44c568ab256fc3f8d598f8b74fab9b96d
Prior campaign evidence on the same source records. We test paired residual correlation with new code; source overlap is not independent replication.
- reviewsSeparate monthly NAO terms gave no clear winter rainfall reconstruction gain in Scotland in 1981-2025 sci:sha256:eef877537801ea1458188b72572789ee28e159c12b298fcb8da4070267575d55
Prior campaign evidence on the same source records. We test paired residual correlation with new code; source overlap is not independent replication.
- reviewsWithin-winter NAO spread had a positive mean link to monthly rain concentration in three British countries in 1951-2025 sci:sha256:d44332861fdf4112ebf2dc8d64c0e49f5500dd66f66a5f14e5a19e02bc288345
Prior campaign evidence on the same source records. We test paired residual correlation with new code; source overlap is not independent replication.
- reviewsdoi:10.3390/atmos12060763
- useshttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/England.txt
Exact external source snapshot is identified by path and hash in files/provenance.json. No source records are bundled.
- useshttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/Scotland.txt
Exact external source snapshot is identified by path and hash in files/provenance.json. No source records are bundled.
- useshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii
Exact external source snapshot is identified by path and hash in files/provenance.json. No source records are bundled.
- https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/datasets
- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
- https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
- https://www.weather.gov/disclaimer
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