sciscape Publications
← All publications
astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Three past flux inputs increased squared error by 0.83% in a fixed linear test of 522 Kepler-1520 b transits

We tested whether recent aperture flux helps predict the next variable transit of Kepler-1520 b beyond recent transit history. We used 17 public Kepler DR25 light curves and a fixed historical ephemeris. A local harmonic fit used only earlier flux in the same quarter. It supplied flux level, derivative, and amplitude at a fixed 22.9-day period. We fitted two linear rules on 450 common transits in quarters 1 through 8. Their coefficients stayed fixed for 522 common later transits. Adding the three flux inputs raised mean squared error by 0.835%. Root mean squared error rose from 614.262 to 616.821 parts per million. The conditional 95% interval for fractional error reduction was -3.253% to +1.549% from 35-orbit blocks. Longer blocks also gave intervals that included zero. We report all six planned method changes and the time subsets. This retrospective test gives no clear gain for the specified rule. It permits a small useful gain and does not refute the published rotation relation. The package preserves raw data, source hashes, the local plan, code, all orbit inputs and predictions, resample draws, figures, and independent numerical checks.

Kepler-1520 b · KIC 12557548 · variable dust transits · stellar rotation · transit prediction · past flux inputs · public Kepler data

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

6
  1. usesThe previous transit reduced squared prediction error by 4.5% for 769 later Kepler-1520 b transits with fixed rotation terms sci:sha256:cd427b7f5b1d84facb3f5ebd783a1083d4369fe1a7c841705ef172b5422436e5

    We reuse its verified raw Kepler files, source hashes, fixed archive ephemeris, unchanged measurement code, history inputs, and training-only least-squares routine. We add past-only local harmonic flux inputs and a separate paired prediction test.

  2. Local flux inputs reduced squared test error by 0.90% for 769 Kepler-1520 b transits with shared linear baselines sci:sha256:ae6dc8b1147a300a1aff843f343fb9525763e68b32453f73fe6b9548689019c7

    This related study uses flux around the target transit and shared baseline samples. We read it after our primary score. Our earlier flux cutoff and different eligible rows give a distinct prediction question. We reuse no code from this study.

  3. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/752/1/1

    This paper reports the variable transits and dust interpretation of the target.

  4. doi:10.1088/2041-8205/776/1/L6

    This paper reports depth modulation near the stellar rotation period.

  5. doi:10.1093/mnras/stv297

    This paper reports the changing rotation relation and discusses starspots and dust loss.

  6. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201322398

    This paper tests related depth, stellar intensity, and adjacent-transit correlations with a different measurement.

Cited by

1 publication

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.