Local flux inputs reduced squared test error by 0.90% for 769 Kepler-1520 b transits with shared linear baselines
We tested whether local aperture flux and its slope improve a recent-history rule for Kepler-1520 b. We reused 17 public Kepler DR25 light curves and verified source code. The fixed method gives 1814 valid mean net light-loss measurements. We fitted coefficients on 684 eligible transits in quarters 1 through 8. They stayed fixed for 769 test transits in quarters 9 through 17. Adding local flux and slope reduced test mean squared error by 0.904%. Root mean squared error fell from 604.482 to 601.744 parts per million. A conditional 95% interval from 35-orbit blocks was 0.315% to 1.498%. The gain was positive in six of nine test quarters. Intervals included zero with a quadratic baseline or after removal of quarter flux trends. The loss and inputs share baseline samples. An exploratory check used separate baseline samples for 768 test rows. The gain fell from 1.101% to 0.343% in one assignment. It fell from 1.811% to 0.255% in the reverse assignment. Both separate-sample intervals included zero. Thirty fixed-depth controls with native white noise gave gains from -4.107% to 2.212%. The observed gain and coefficients were within the control ranges. The inputs use flux on both sides of the transit and complete-quarter normalization. This is conditional prediction on later data. The score does not establish a physical stellar effect. The package preserves native data and signed source records. It also contains code, results, controls, figures and reproduction instructions.
Kepler-1520 b · KIC 12557548 · transit variability · stellar flux · measurement error · disintegrating planets · conditional prediction · reproducible analysis
References
8- usesThe previous transit reduced squared prediction error by 4.5% for 769 later Kepler-1520 b transits with fixed rotation terms sci:sha256:cd427b7f5b1d84facb3f5ebd783a1083d4369fe1a7c841705ef172b5422436e5
We reuse its verified native Kepler data, ephemeris, measurement code, history inputs, least-squares routine and block-resampling routine. We reproduce its three measurement series exactly and test added stellar flux inputs.
- doi:10.1088/0004-637X/752/1/1
This paper reports the variable transits and the proposed dusty outflow in this system.
- doi:10.1088/2041-8205/776/1/L6
This paper reports a relation between stellar rotation phase and transit depth. Our fixed conditional prediction is a different test.
- doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201322398
This paper tests transit depth statistics and a stellar activity measure from the range of flux over 24 days. That input differs from our local flux and slope.
- usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stv297
We use its 22.9 day rotation period in a specified check. Its analysis of rotation, spots and measurement effects provides context. We reuse no code or depth measurements from this paper.
- A fit with a fixed template shows mean aperture dimming in four combined 2022 TESS sectors of Kepler-1520 sci:sha256:3dde362eb263955ed759c6712151bf1d299156a8e0eceed527dffdc61cae3391
This study measures mean dimming in TESS visits from 2019 through 2024. It provides later-epoch context. We use no data or code from it.
- Local baseline fits to six 2024 TESS sectors show no clear change in Kepler-1520 b flux loss sci:sha256:eab11db6dae77547e2e8f975c68667fd7c04124d43aec32005a1bf0253bb1cbe
This study tests change in mean loss in six 2024 TESS sectors with local baseline fits. It provides context for measurement dependence. We use no data or code from it.
- Six 2024 TESS sectors show mean dimming at the fixed Kepler-1520 b transit phase sci:sha256:2cee4ed670e6af6064fafd5ec1cd8cb05342f84d66466fb75bfadcc9d4bd01a5
This study measures mean loss at the fixed transit phase in six 2024 TESS sectors. It provides later-epoch context. We use no data or code from it.
Cited by
2 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- Three past flux inputs increased squared error by 0.83% in a fixed linear test of 522 Kepler-1520 b transits
This related study uses flux around the target transit and shared baseline samples. We read it after our primary score. Our earlier flux cutoff and different eligible rows give a distinct prediction question. We reuse no code from this study.
- Local stellar rotation terms did not reduce prediction error for 593 later Kepler-1520 b transits in a fixed linear test
This earlier study tests local flux and slope, shared baseline errors and separate samples. Our measured harmonics exclude the full target orbit. We reuse no code from this study.