Forecast amplitude ranked 50 ms accuracy better than sine amplitude against offline theta phase in seven patients' SEEG rest data
We tested two scores for the accuracy of the same linear phase forecast. We used 17 public SEEG rest files from seven patients. The horizon was 50 ms. The target was offline theta phase in the 4 to 10 Hz band. An accurate forecast had error at most 45 degrees. Forecast amplitude gave patient mean AUC 0.637. Past sine amplitude gave AUC 0.555. The paired gain was 0.0826. All seven patient gains and all 17 file gains were positive. A descriptive patient bootstrap interval was 0.0738 to 0.0907. The exact two-sided sign-flip test gave p = 0.015625 under independent patients and symmetric null gains. A threshold set by the earlier validation median retained 50.1% of later forecasts. Accepted mean error was 51.7 degrees, compared with 63.4 degrees for all forecasts. Accepted accuracy within 45 degrees was 55.8%. This is a secondary analysis of reused patients and test segments. The scores give rankings, not accuracy guarantees. No stimulation or clinical effect was tested. The package preserves native inputs, pinned sources, fitted models, scores, code, results, figures, and reproduction checks. A new source download matched all 17 input files. A repeat matched all 1,395 numerical arrays and saved tables exactly.
theta phase · phase forecasting · forecast confidence · SEEG · intracranial EEG · forecast amplitude · sine amplitude · area under the curve
References
7- usesCalibrated linear forecasts had lower mean 50 ms error against offline theta phase than sine fits in seven patients' later SEEG rest data sci:sha256:1cd3c1c0512262d93ab30e567f06de8055b966e60e34fe87bac572b3e24ce770
This publication supplied the native input arrays, fixed model code, phase targets, sample splits, and earlier forecasts. We used them to compare two confidence scores for the same later forecast accuracy labels.
- usesA past amplitude rule reduced mean 50 ms theta phase error for sine forecasts in seven patients' SEEG rest data and random phase controls sci:sha256:9ffd9a50437cf82772a0fb756c98fede1a17ca3be7ed23e0fa428dabd2609abe
This publication supplied the earlier sine baseline, contact mapping, and pinned source retrieval records. The preserved model code uses its sine method. We measured sine amplitude on the same past windows as the linear forecast.
- usesdoi:10.18112/openneuro.ds006065.v1.0.0
The analysis uses 17 SEEG rest files from OpenNeuro ds006065 version 1.0.0.
- doi:10.1038/s41467-025-59417-7
The source study reports the stimulation work that motivated this phase-forecast accuracy analysis and provided the public rest recordings.
- doi:10.7554/eLife.68803
- supportsdoi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2020.116761
This work supports the stated limitation that offline phase can be uncertain, especially when amplitude or signal-to-noise ratio is low.
- usesdoi:10.5281/zenodo.14735080
The preserved source study code and contact mapping are associated with this Zenodo record.
Cited by
2 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesIndependent draws from 17 SEEG records gave a 67.16 degree mean error for linear 50 ms offline theta phase forecasts
We reused its 17 native input arrays, retrieval code, predictor code, source records, and contact map. We also repeated its masked real-data result.
- usesA 500 ms future buffer reduced theta phase label change compared with 50 ms in seven patients' rest SEEG with fixed reflection
This publication supplied the 17 native SEEG inputs, source version pins, contact mapping, forecast code, and saved forecast arrays. We checked these dependencies and held the forecasts fixed for the new future buffer comparison.