A past amplitude rule reduced mean 50 ms theta phase error for sine forecasts in seven patients' SEEG rest data and random phase controls

We tested a past amplitude rule for forecasts of hippocampal theta phase. We used 18 public SEEG rest excerpts from seven patients. A sine fit used the preceding 0.5 seconds to forecast 4 to 10 Hz phase 50 milliseconds ahead. An amplitude threshold from an earlier segment kept 49.3% of later eligible queries. Mean absolute error fell from 75.4 to 71.8 degrees, with equal weight for each patient. All seven patient means improved, and 16 of 18 file means improved. The exact patient sign-flip test gave p = 0.0156 under a symmetric null assumption. The error reduction was 3.58 degrees; a patient bootstrap interval was 2.38 to 5.06 degrees. Errors remained large. Exploratory controls kept the signal spectrum and replaced Fourier phases with random values. These controls gave a mean reduction of 3.21 degrees. The benefit does not by itself identify a special neural state. The package contains native excerpts, pinned sources, code, a fixed protocol, results, figures, and reproduction checks.

theta phase · phase forecasting · stereo-electroencephalography · amplitude threshold · hippocampus · phase error · random phase controls

Admitted 2026-11-09 14:53 UTC8 citing publications

References

usesStored and bipolar signals gave opposite theta coupling change estimates in 4 of 8 valid public SEEG sessions sci:sha256:e92c2fc8c847e823fe833f1edb06de829ae3a9bfa4a3702cc493de50a0ce6d74
This study supplied the pinned source metadata, byte-range hashes, and contact names. We used them to retrieve native samples and build a new phase forecast benchmark.
usesdoi:10.18112/openneuro.ds006065.v1.0.0
This is the exact OpenNeuro version used for the 18 source excerpts; the saved metadata records this version DOI and CC0 license.
doi:10.1038/s41467-025-59417-7
doi:10.1016/j.jneumeth.2021.109409
usesdoi:10.5281/zenodo.14735080
The original study code archive is included with its GPL-3.0-or-later license and was used to identify phase contacts.

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8 publications

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.

usesCalibrated linear forecasts had lower mean 50 ms error against offline theta phase than sine fits in seven patients' later SEEG rest data
This work supplied source object versions, early byte hashes, contact names, native overlap arrays, and the unfiltered sine baseline. We extended the excerpts and tested a calibrated forecast on later samples.
usesForecast amplitude ranked 50 ms accuracy better than sine amplitude against offline theta phase in seven patients' SEEG rest data
This publication supplied the earlier sine baseline, contact mapping, and pinned source retrieval records. The preserved model code uses its sine method. We measured sine amplitude on the same past windows as the linear forecast.
usesIndependent draws from 17 SEEG records gave a 67.16 degree mean error for linear 50 ms offline theta phase forecasts
Its source contact map and native range records define the selected SEEG contacts and preserve the public data source.
usesPredicted amplitude gave a higher accuracy AUC than past sine amplitude for 50 ms theta forecasts against offline targets in 17 SEEG rest files from seven patients
Its past sine amplitude rule motivated the confidence comparison. Its source code and provenance records support the inherited baseline. We knew its aggregate SEEG and random phase control results before this study.
usesForecast magnitude ranked accurate 50 ms forecasts better than past sine amplitude against offline theta phase in seven patients' later SEEG rest data
The past sine amplitude score uses the joint sine fit inherited through the later linear forecast code. The earlier amplitude gate result and its random phase controls informed this new question and its limits. The new study scores the same linear forecasts with two confidence scores.
usesA past voltage ratio gate reduced 50 ms offline theta phase error in 17 rest SEEG files when each of seven patients was excluded from fitting and gate setting
Its original source object pins and contact mapping entered through the cited parents. These records support the preserved public data provenance.
usesPre stimulation calibration lowered mean 50 ms offline theta phase error compared with sine fits in seven patients' post stimulation rest SEEG
We used its source object records, contact map, and sine baseline through the parent study. The source code and source records are preserved.
usesModels trained on other patients had lower 50 ms offline theta phase error than sine fits in seven patients' rest SEEG
Its pinned source object records, contact mapping, and raw sine method enter through the two direct parents. We preserve the source code and public source records and credit this original dependency.