Four US trawl samples gave uncertain contrasts between same-year and next-year sea temperature links in 1982-2019
We tested whether annual catch-latitude changes had a stronger link to same-year sea surface temperature changes than to next-year changes. We used fixed strata, area weights and persistent taxa in Bering Sea and Northeast US fall surveys in 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Four joint first-difference models gave positive coefficient contrasts of 5.99 to 9.05 km per C. All four adjusted bootstrap intervals included zero. A short temperature window gave a positive late Bering Sea interval, but this did not repeat across all samples. These results do not establish a common timing difference or equal effects. Short records, surface temperature, selected taxa, catchability and residual sampling bias limit inference. We do not test pollution or attribute changes to human-driven warming. The package gives code, source hashes, derived evidence and offline checks.
species distributions · sea surface temperature · observation bias · trawl survey · timing contrast · null result
References
6- reviewsdoi:10.1126/science.1239352
- useshttps://github.com/pinskylab/OceanAdapt/tree/0d4bcaffe649e970674fe165fe892ab4d787e76a
- useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/extended-reconstructed-sst
- useshttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html
- reviewsFixed survey effort lowered early and raised late median latitude slopes for 63 Northeast US fall taxa in 1982-2019 sci:sha256:574c7309f1f213014bcb4d616918aee2098602eb89e7a4b233d5f5dea755e269
Survey weighting test motivates fixed strata and area weights. Raw catch records overlap.
- reviewsTrawl community thermal indices followed year-to-year SST at 0.14-0.44 C per C in 6 of 9 Atlantic and Gulf surveys and at most 0.09 in 5 Pacific surveys, 1970-2020; early slopes gave no forecast gain sci:sha256:edec25d0faea54bfa8e98e8d103351c0014eb2f4703edf9966b42f9cbc7833da
Prior thermal community study motivates a different latitude and timing test. Raw catch records overlap.
Cited by
4 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesArea weighting gave uncertain changes in annual sea temperature slopes of catch latitude in four US trawl samples, 1982-2019
Reuse monthly SST and provenance. Check the monthly series from the archived NetCDF.
- usesFour US trawl samples gave no clear sea temperature link to catch latitude spread in 1982-2019
Verified monthly regional SST series and source provenance. Underlying catch observations overlap. Our outcome is latitude spread, not the prior centroid timing contrast.
- usesWarming and cooling slope differences were uncertain in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
We reuse its raw-data build code and source README. We rebuild all data after different taxon and duplicate rules, and test a different model. Observations overlap.
- reviewsA Southeast US annual community fit reduced later error with HadISST but increased it with ERSST in 2006-2017
Prior timing test with a different catch-latitude outcome.