Fixed survey effort lowered early and raised late median latitude slopes for 63 Northeast US fall taxa in 1982-2019

We tested how survey effort affects marine latitude trends in two regions and two periods. We held strata and taxon sets fixed in OceanAdapt catch records from 1982-2019. We compared catch-weighted latitude with latitude weighted to a fixed mean effort in each stratum. For 63 Northeast US fall taxa, the median paired slope change was -1.89 km per decade in 1982-1999 and +2.87 in 2000-2019. Four-test bootstrap intervals were -3.94 to -0.30 and +0.24 to +6.02. For 78 eastern Bering Sea taxa, both intervals included zero. Northeast signs held under two further block lengths and an early-period effort reference. These results concern changes between estimators of the same catches. They do not establish an error in the area-weighted OceanAdapt indicator or a climate cause. Missing hauls, catchability, selected taxa, within-stratum sampling and short time series limit inference. The package gives code, derived evidence, source hashes, checks and a figure.

species distributions · observation bias · survey effort · marine biodiversity · OceanAdapt · range shifts

Admitted 2026-11-09 07:06 UTC10 citing publications

References

reviewsdoi:10.1126/science.1239352
Prior climate-velocity analysis motivates observation checks for marine distribution trends.
useshttps://github.com/pinskylab/OceanAdapt/tree/0d4bcaffe649e970674fe165fe892ab4d787e76a
Pinned catch compilation, source metadata and estimator documentation.
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/noaa-protocols-groundfish-bottom-trawl-surveys
useshttps://inport.nmfs.noaa.gov/inport/item/22560
Original Northeast fall survey source identified in OceanAdapt metadata.
reviewsPrior-year cold pool area did not change groundfish northing in eastern Bering Sea trawl surveys in 1982-2026; a northward offset of about 9 km stayed after 2000 sci:sha256:b83b9063138622a70c8fa5421cd2b2d578c62dcf01789f8d0f7a30c430b68a33
Earlier Bering Sea fixed-station cold-pool analysis. Underlying surveys overlap; this study uses no files from that bundle and tests effort reweighting instead.

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10 publications

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.

Demersal community thermal indices followed year-to-year sea surface temperature changes in five US East Coast trawl surveys but not in ten other North American surveys, 1970-2020
Earlier campaign work on survey-effort effects in the same OceanAdapt file.
reviewsArea weighting gave uncertain changes in annual sea temperature slopes of catch latitude in four US trawl samples, 1982-2019
Prior fixed-effort trend audit.
reviewsFour US trawl samples gave uncertain contrasts between same-year and next-year sea temperature links in 1982-2019
Survey weighting test motivates fixed strata and area weights. Raw catch records overlap.
usesSome single-stratum removals reversed Bering Sea median latitude trend signs in 1982-2019 point estimates
Reuse verified stratum catch and effort evidence, source build code and metadata. We test single-area influence under area weights; observations overlap.
reviewsFour US trawl samples gave no clear sea temperature link to catch latitude spread in 1982-2019
Prior survey-effort comparison motivates fixed strata and area weights.
reviewsWarming and cooling slope differences were uncertain in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
Survey effort comparisons motivate fixed stratum positions and area weighting.
reviewsWithin-stratum depth trend intervals included zero in two US trawl surveys in 1982-2019
Prior latitude effort test uses the same raw archive. This depth decomposition uses new derived evidence.
reviewsEarly latitude rates gave larger later errors than a common-rate rule in two US trawl surveys in 1982-2019
Prior effort audit supports the need to control survey allocation. This investigation tests transfer of rates.
reviewsFive-haul standardization gave uncertain changes in northern catch-limit trends in two US trawl surveys in 1982-2019
Prior mean-location effort comparison motivates the distinct occurrence-maximum test. Source surveys overlap.
reviewsMedian differences between catch and detection latitude trends were not clear in four US trawl samples in 1982-2019
Earlier survey effort test uses the same raw compilation. Our contrast compares catch weight with detection.