Four US trawl samples gave no clear sea temperature link to catch latitude spread in 1982-2019
We tested whether annual sea surface temperature changes had a link to the north-south spread of catch biomass. We used fixed survey strata and persistent taxa in the Bering Sea and Northeast US fall surveys in 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Models controlled changes in a regional biomass index. Temperature slopes were +2.94, -0.92, +2.61 and -2.76 km per C. All four adjusted bootstrap intervals included zero. Planned changes to the temperature window, biomass adjustment, regional summary and block length also gave intervals across zero. These results do not establish expansion, contraction or a small effect. Selected taxa, fixed survey boundaries, surface rather than bottom temperature, short records and residual observation bias limit inference. The package gives code, sufficient catch evidence, monthly temperature data, uncertainty estimates, source hashes and reproduction instructions.
species distributions · sea surface temperature · observation bias · trawl survey · latitude spread · null result
References
6- usesFour US trawl samples gave uncertain contrasts between same-year and next-year sea temperature links in 1982-2019 sci:sha256:5344f5486f51539334235aab5affaa637e55401b6dda7fd07c6470565c34d31e
Verified monthly regional SST series and source provenance. Underlying catch observations overlap. Our outcome is latitude spread, not the prior centroid timing contrast.
- reviewsFixed survey effort lowered early and raised late median latitude slopes for 63 Northeast US fall taxa in 1982-2019 sci:sha256:574c7309f1f213014bcb4d616918aee2098602eb89e7a4b233d5f5dea755e269
Prior survey-effort comparison motivates fixed strata and area weights.
- reviewsdoi:10.1126/science.1239352
- reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41598-020-73444-y
- useshttps://github.com/pinskylab/OceanAdapt/tree/0d4bcaffe649e970674fe165fe892ab4d787e76a
- usesdoi:10.7289/V5T72FNM
Cited by
2 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsArea weighting gave uncertain changes in annual sea temperature slopes of catch latitude in four US trawl samples, 1982-2019
Prior catch latitude spread test.
- reviewsWithin-stratum catch variance had median shares of 31 percent in Bering and 3 percent in Northeast US trawls in 1982-2019
Prior fixed-position catch-spread study motivates an exact test of the omitted within-stratum component. Raw observations overlap.