Excluding two BAT days reverses the 2024–2026 cubic and sine clock ranking for LMC X-4 with fixed four-harmonic profiles and inverse-variance fits
We test the central cubic and sine phase clocks in Chou (2026, arXiv:2602.13491v1) on later public LMC X-4 data. We fit four-harmonic profiles before 2024 June 1 and fix them for the later test. In the BAT calibration interval from 2017 September to 2024 May, two flag-zero days supply 90.783% of the weight from the listed errors. All 2,196 accepted days give a cubic-to-sine weighted mean squared error ratio of 1.004631 on 587 later days, through 2026 October 19. Excluding only those two calibration days changes the ratio to 0.949031. Both later prediction errors fall. Equal calibration weights and a variance floor give similar errors. This exclusion is a check made after the first fits. It does not show that the two measurements are invalid. The original small ranking difference has a block-resampling interval that includes equal errors. The MAXI comparison also does not give a stable clock choice. Clock parameter uncertainty and profile evolution limit a physical interpretation. The contribution is a frozen later-data benchmark and a reproducible weight-influence result. The package includes exact source data, provenance, code, all controls, daily predictions, figures, and a separate numerical audit.
LMC X-4 · superorbital cycle · Swift BAT · MAXI · phase prediction · inverse-variance fitting · weight concentration · data provenance
References
5- usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2602.13491
We use the central Table 1 phase functions and event-time equations from arXiv v1 to predict later daily data.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae4691
This is the journal record for the source phase study. The calculations use arXiv v1. The journal full text was not checked.
- usesA fixed 167.43-day clock gives lower 2023–2026 MAXI errors for 4U 1820-30 than the published clock with a period decrease when early Fourier profiles are fixed sci:sha256:0b06b08040dfbc08e8f4cad6c78a13db48332bbbeac5b28b98952625db4d1e52
We use its fixed Fourier-profile forecast design and formal-weight checks. Our code is a separate implementation.
- doi:10.1088/0067-0049/209/1/14
This describes the Swift/BAT transient monitor that supplies the public hard X-ray data.
- doi:10.1093/pasj/61.5.999
This describes the MAXI instrument that supplies the public soft X-ray data.
Cited by
1 publicationPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- Fixed-phase daily fits give a lower hard-to-soft cycle amplitude ratio for LMC X-4 in 2024–2026 than in 2017–2024
Its clock test shows the effect of two high-weight BAT days. We retain the documented date cut and test a linear phase.