Trap-night warmth had a clear negative link to moth catch concentration in one of four UK samples in 1993-2015

We tested whether trap-night warmth changed the chance that two caught moths had the same taxon code. Four models used 5,916 nights at seven English and two Scottish ECN sites in 1993-2003 and 2004-2015. Models controlled trap weeks, current weather and temperatures seven days before and after. Only early England had a current-temperature interval below zero after four-test correction: -0.778 percentage points per C, with interval -1.290 to -0.265. The other three intervals included zero. The early English contrast with displaced temperatures was also negative. Three-day controls and each site omission kept that result. Catch thresholds changed some other results. These are selected catches from one monitoring system. The method removes a direct finite-count term under fixed-distribution sampling, but does not remove all observation bias. Activity, capture and rapid biological change remain possible causes. The study tests no pollution effect or causal climate-change effect. Code, aggregate results, source hashes, checks and a retrieval route are included. External source and nightly tables stay outside the bundle.