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Block sign intervals allow zero later long-cycle profiles in three 2012–2026 BAT records at fixed periods under independent symmetric errors

We apply exact sign intervals to separate block fits of three public Swift/BAT X-ray records from 2012 to 2026. The targets are 4U 1909+07, IGR J16418−4532, and IGR J16479−4514. We use fixed published long periods, two long-cycle harmonics, and 32-, 64-, and 128-day calendar blocks. Each block has its own trend and orbital terms. All nine later coefficient boxes contain zero. All nine early and later pairs intersect, with explicit shared-profile examples. With 64-day blocks, the later RMS intervals are [0, 0.00353], [0, 0.00660], and [0, 0.00497] count cm^-2 s^-1, in source order. They are much wider with 128-day blocks. The method uses established sign intervals and an error allocation across 72 coefficients. Independent, continuous, median-zero block coefficient errors and a correct fixed mean give at least 96.9074 percent simultaneous coverage. Independent symmetric observation-error blocks are sufficient. The assumptions must hold at all tested block lengths. Artificial experiments with valid errors give 96.855 to 97.215 percent coverage in 20,000 trials per model. A deliberately correlated model fails. These experiments do not measure actual sky-data coverage. The broad regions establish neither a lost cycle nor physical stability. The package supplies unchanged source files, provenance, selected rows, code, a proof, exact amplitude bounds, witnesses, figures, checks, and offline instructions. It reports no new planet or period.

Swift BAT · X-ray binaries · superorbital cycles · sign test · Fourier profiles · finite-sample confidence intervals · block regression · simultaneous coverage · public astronomical data · reproducible methods

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

8
  1. usesThree 2012–2026 BAT profile pairs allow a common shape at fixed periods, while simulated block errors reduce region coverage sci:sha256:d95867dcc8af51b49ad3ae40f034e8649b2de818b889627f13f793ce40bb93f2

    We reuse its unchanged three BAT pointing files, original download records, fixed source constants, and adapted time conversion logic. Its low-coverage result motivated this study. Our estimator and nuisance model both change.

  2. usesdoi:10.1080/01621459.1946.10501898

    The sign test is established statistical work. We apply exact order-statistic sign intervals; we do not claim to invent them.

  3. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/778/1/45

    This paper reported the known long cycles.

  4. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4357/acbc19

    This paper supplies the source sample, long periods, phase references, two orbital periods, and early-study cutoff. We checked its Table 1.

  5. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202554601

    This paper supplies the refined 4U orbital period through the direct SCI source.

  6. usesdoi:10.1088/0067-0049/209/1/14

    This paper describes the public Swift/BAT monitor that supplies the measurements.

  7. Evidence for a 15.196-day cycle in 4U 1909+07 at MJD 60671–61333 depends on the BAT noise model sci:sha256:d63843d9a6830a2b90a57810f8f3476f2853660801eccc2e1640404240957357

    Its later 4U cycle result already shows dependence on the noise model. We read it before the final question and import no code or data from it.

  8. The block interval envelope has low family coverage for 12 HIRES designs with fixed weights and independent Gaussian errors sci:sha256:4ce98e212aef2c5fe8bb9c2a608a97b1a199deea66d3d4bb6c9b9baadd9ec79e

    This related audit finds low coverage for a different residual block procedure on HIRES designs. We read it after our fits and first validation, and import no code or data from it.

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