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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysicsstat.ME · Methodology

No fixed HARPS curve in a set of 12 fails all six HIRES sign tests under independent symmetric block errors

We test 12 fixed HARPS velocity curves with public HIRES data. We remove nuisance terms within time blocks. We then invert all sign changes of independent symmetric block scores. Each test has finite-sample error control under a correct fixed location model and the stated block assumptions. We use 180, 365.25, and 730 day blocks at two origins. The base yearly layout gives upper limits of 5.901 m/s for GJ 9527 and 1.965 m/s for GJ 95. These limits are below the fixed source amplitudes of 8.976 and 2.012 m/s. The two-year layouts give higher limits. No curve fails all six tests. The largest limits across layouts are 14.459 and 4.495 m/s for those two stars. The other ten largest limits are infinite because at least one layout has too few retained blocks. At least eight blocks are needed at the per-star error limit of 0.05/12. The upper envelope has at least 95% family coverage if each star has one valid layout. Simulations with independent Gaussian or Cauchy blocks give 1.11% family false rejections in 8192 trials per model. The discrete design expectation is 1.19%. Controls that break independence or symmetry exceed the error bound. These experiments do not verify the real stellar noise assumptions. The contribution is this HIRES application of established sign methods, its exact score implementation, and its reproducible results. It does not exclude all planet orbits. The package contains input rows, source hashes, code, proofs, figures, and offline instructions.

HIRES · HARPS · radial velocity · fixed orbit · candidate validation · sign test · block errors · finite-sample inference · local nuisance terms · reproducibility

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References

12
  1. usesThree of 12 fixed HARPS candidate curves have lower HIRES amplitudes in a block residual test sci:sha256:c6868b65a79bdeaf7f316721fd4d1fbffdd86a513ad091f02f687f4af45ad97f

    We reuse its unchanged selected HIRES rows, full precision candidate records, known periods, source results, and arrays. We change the nuisance model and error procedure.

  2. The block interval envelope has low family coverage for 12 HIRES designs with fixed weights and independent Gaussian errors sci:sha256:4ce98e212aef2c5fe8bb9c2a608a97b1a199deea66d3d4bb6c9b9baadd9ec79e

    Its low coverage result motivates a method with a finite-sample proof under explicit assumptions. Our estimator also changes, so this comparison does not isolate an error algorithm.

  3. usesA blind Keplerian search of 743 HARPS-RVBank v2 stars with 30 or more nights recovers 248 of 465 known planets and finds 57 signals (FAP < 0.1 %) with no known match that pass activity tests sci:sha256:17e2629023ac1bcbb507eb643afc93a73a34d8a9d1ba2357cc22bd7bc4f108cb

    It supplies the fixed HARPS orbit forecasts through the direct HIRES source. We perform no new period search.

  4. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202555034

    This updated HIRES catalog supplies the public velocities. We preserve the selected source rows and its unit audit.

  5. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202348263

    HARPS-RVBank v2 supplies the measurements behind the earlier fixed candidate curves.

  6. usesdoi:10.1007/s11749-017-0571-1

    The finite-group randomization proof gives the basis for our exhaustive sign test. We count ties against rejection.

  7. doi:10.1109/TSP.2014.2369000

    Sign methods already give finite-sample regression regions under independent symmetric errors. We do not claim to invent that principle or implement its full SPS region.

  8. doi:10.1111/rssb.12369

    This prior work studies score sign changes and nuisance estimation. Our stated guarantee uses local nuisance removal before sign changes.

  9. Block sign intervals allow zero later long-cycle profiles in three 2012–2026 BAT records at fixed periods under independent symmetric errors sci:sha256:c22ee96991ec19d9d6559d07a57ca144f15e4fd2050db7138d5dfc9f2fb4c3b0

    This related study already applies exact sign intervals to local BAT fits. We read it after our observed results and first validation. We reuse no BAT data or code.

  10. 167 APF nights give a lower amplitude for the fixed 21.35-day HARPS curve of HD 14412 in Gaussian fits sci:sha256:d87b56f9b7b2f602a355d94654e129fc3e816bf865745b7e4f7879ab24199746

    This prior study gives related APF evidence for the fixed GJ 95 curve under stated Gaussian fits. We read its catalog abstract and claim no first target discrepancy.

  11. Independent RVs reject 13 of 25 testable HARPS-RVBank v2 candidates (3 if HARPS errors double) and agree with a 19.7-day HD 111232 signal, with linear-trend nuisance models sci:sha256:1b429149b29b478f8b85a22182153f1e36c4ea06d284bbeb276a362b6f2254b1

    Prior work already compared HARPS candidates with independent radial velocities. Our contribution is the stated HIRES sign construction and layout comparison.

  12. doi:10.1093/mnrasl/sly227

    This prior work describes HIRES systematic corrections and the detector change used in the nightly grouping.

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