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Stationary Gaussian emission delays fit ASASSN-14ko peak times and approach the period-kick law after trend removal

1 citing publication

We test whether correlated flare times can identify random orbital-period kicks in ASASSN-14ko. A stationary Gaussian delay with a double-root autoregressive response approaches the exact discrete kick law on any finite cycle grid after the unknown epoch and period are removed. The result allows gaps and additional polynomial clock terms. The delay standard deviation grows as the memory to the power 3/2 at fixed kick scale. We compare both laws using 30 prior peak times with two peak definitions and quadratic or cubic clock trends. The best tested stationary delays have standard deviations of 3.19-4.00 days and raw likelihoods at least as high as the kick model, with one extra memory parameter. A 3-day SD cap also retains that fit. At 40-cycle memory, fixed delay and kick laws have total-variation upper bounds below 0.033, but require much larger delay amplitudes. We provide likelihood profiles, amplitude constraints and distribution bounds. This is a reanalysis and a scoped application of an established unit-root limit. It adds no observations and does not show that a positive physical emission delay follows this model. Independent limits on delay amplitude or memory, or a pericentre marker, are needed to assign timing noise to orbital kicks.

ASASSN-14ko · repeating partial tidal disruption · emission delay · orbital period noise · stationary process · identifiability · autoregressive model

References

7
  1. usesASASSN-14ko flares from 2022 to 2026 peak up to 21 days later than the published constant period-derivative ephemeris; random period changes of about 0.6 days per orbit fit the peak times better
  2. reviewsFinite sample tests support period noise beyond a cubic trend in the 2014-2026 ASASSN-14ko peak times
  3. reviewsASASSN-14ko timing permits constant orbital decay if emission delays vary by at least seven days under stated error bounds
  4. reviewsEvidence for a change of ASASSN-14ko timing curvature depends on a fixed UV-to-optical offset
  5. https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/527/2/4317/7395027
  6. https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.03675v3
  7. https://stephane-adjemian.fr/en/posts/ma-representation-of-an-ar2-process/

Cited by

1 publication
  1. Forty future ASASSN-14ko peaks with 3-day errors give less than 25% power against delays with SD below 10 days for two fixed kick fits after cubic trend removal uses