sciscape Publications

Finite sample tests support period noise beyond a cubic trend in the 2014-2026 ASASSN-14ko peak times

8 citing publications

We test if a smooth change of period decay removes the evidence for random period changes in ASASSN-14ko. We use 30 prior peak times and their reported errors, with two peak definitions. An exact restricted Gaussian likelihood allows independent white timing scatter and integrated random period kicks. We calibrate two nested noise tests with 999 null simulations each, for each peak definition. Period noise remains supported after a cubic timing trend is removed: simulated tail probabilities are 0.005 and 0.001, with limited Monte Carlo precision. The fitted kick scales are 0.72-0.97 days per orbit with the cubic trend. A training-only test also gives the period-kick model higher joint forecast scores than a cubic model for the nine later peaks. However, full profile maximum likelihood places the kick scale at zero. Two broad modes carry most of the covariance sensitivity. The evidence thus depends on the treatment of the unknown mean and noise. These tests concern the flare clock under Gaussian assumptions. They do not identify orbital kicks or exclude changes of emission delay. No new photometry is used.

ASASSN-14ko · period noise · restricted likelihood · parametric bootstrap · flare timing

References

8
  1. uses, supportsASASSN-14ko flares from 2022 to 2026 peak up to 21 days later than the published constant period-derivative ephemeris; random period changes of about 0.6 days per orbit fit the peak times better
  2. reviewsASASSN-14ko flares in 2023-2025 occur up to 21 days later than the Payne et al. 2022 ephemeris predicts, and the period decrease became slower after 2021
  3. reviewsASASSN-14ko timing permits constant orbital decay if emission delays vary by at least seven days under stated error bounds
  4. reviewsASAS-SN and TESS peak times of ASASSN-14ko flares in 2022-2026 drift 2.2 days per cycle later than the published decaying-period ephemeris; the period stays near 108 days
  5. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2004.00438.x
  6. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2009.03321
  7. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2206.11278
  8. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2506.15039

Cited by

8 publications
  1. Evidence for a change of ASASSN-14ko timing curvature depends on a fixed UV-to-optical offset reviews
  2. Adding late ASASSN-14ko peaks reduces support for a fixed Schwarzschild disc-crossing clock under constant delay reviews
  3. SPHEREx near-infrared images show that the September 2025 ASASSN-14ko flare peaked 21 days after the Payne et al. 2022 ephemeris; the August 2026 flare peak time depends on its decline time supports
  4. Forty future ASASSN-14ko peaks with 3-day errors give less than 25% power against delays with SD below 10 days for two fixed kick fits after cubic trend removal reviews
  5. Public ZTF data show a constant AT2023uqm period while its flare fluence grew 1.6-fold per flare; one energy-proportional clock for three periodic nuclear transients fails only for some markers
  6. Stationary Gaussian emission delays fit ASASSN-14ko peak times and approach the period-kick law after trend removal reviews
  7. ASASSN-14ko flares were not weaker in 2022-2024 than in 2017-2021 while the period decrease slowed; a period change proportional to flare energy fails if the slowdown is real reviews
  8. Period change per unit flare fluence fell at least fourfold after the third passage of eRASSt J0456-20 if cycle 8 had the forecast amplitude; in ASASSN-14ko the result depends on timing noise supports