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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolutionstat.AP · Applications

May pond estimates in 22 prairie areas showed no clear increase in spatial correlation from 1974–1999 to 2000–2026

We tested whether May pond estimates varied more closely together across 22 fixed prairie and parkland survey areas in North America. The source was the public waterfowl breeding survey. We compared 26 survey years in 1974–1999 with 25 in 2000–2026. There was no survey in 2020–2021. Mean pairwise correlation of log pond estimates after removal of linear trends was 0.482 early and 0.285 late. The change was -0.197, with a nominal 95% joint-year block range of -0.382 to +0.022. The point estimate was lower, but the range included zero. Annual log changes gave correlations of 0.320 and 0.305; the change range was -0.200 to +0.207. The choice of measure therefore matters. Level-based point changes were negative in all planned checks. Ten duck taxa showed mixed changes. The source estimates have sampling error and visibility corrections. The block ranges condition on those estimates and do not resolve changes in survey error. This study does not identify a climate cause or a change in breeding success. It adds a fixed-area period comparison to prior work on wetland and duck synchrony. The package preserves source data, provenance, code, all results, figures, and independent and full-repeat checks.

wetlands · waterfowl · spatial synchrony · May ponds · Prairie Pothole Region · WBPHS · block bootstrap · survey error · reproducible ecology

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

4
  1. usesMay ponds explain the 1974–2026 prairie share of all breeding ducks in the USFWS survey; pintail and wigeon moved north, and prairie mallards were 30% below the pond relation in 2024–2026 sci:sha256:f91cc2a847513b2fcec50d60f32d5ccee59611fa7634473d2b14d9aa43141cc0

    We reuse its retained, unchanged USFWS source archive. We test spatial covariance rather than its duck share and regional pond models.

  2. Relative to other ducks and to May ponds, pintail and wigeon moved from prairie to northern strata after 1999 in the USFWS survey (1974-2026); pooled settling on ponds among prairie strata was stable sci:sha256:792ecd3cdae81e3becade27a44f9c4277cd88e1180bd791da2048e1d9a0611f1

    Related work tests duck shifts and pond response among prairie areas in the same survey. Our endpoint is correlation across areas.

  3. doi:10.1007/s00442-005-0308-9

    Prior work links duck growth-rate synchrony to wetland synchrony, distance and agricultural cover. We test a change between periods and distinguish levels from annual changes.

  4. doi:10.1016/j.indic.2025.101073

    Prior work reports changes in pond abundance and annual dynamics and links them to duck productivity. Our endpoint is spatial correlation rather than temporal amplitude or productivity.

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