Circular density errors exceed a factor of two in 39% of selected weak Kepler DR25 fits with tabulated duration errors at most 10%
We test whether agreement in tabulated transit duration establishes an accurate circular density in selected Kepler DR25 injection fits. We compare corrected supplemental point fits with known circular input orbits. At measured multiple event statistic 7.1 to less than 10, 10,700 fits have duration errors at most 10%. Of these, 4,166 have circular density below half or above twice its input value. The error fraction is 38.93%. Its 95% sky-group bootstrap interval is 37.96% to 39.96%. The fraction is 78.33% for input impact parameter at least 0.8. A control holds fitted period, radius ratio, and duration fixed. It uses known input impact parameter and leaves only 2 errors. Contact durations calculated from input geometry give a similar overall fraction, 39.06%. Many source input durations differ from the circular contact formula beyond printed precision. We preserve and test this unresolved difference. The result is an empirical benchmark for synthetic signals and recovered point fits. It does not give an eccentricity detection, a real-planet error probability, or a test of catalog posterior uncertainties. We preserve source data, row outcomes, group resamples, figures, code, provenance, and independent audits.
Kepler DR25 · transit injections · stellar density · transit duration · impact parameter · eccentricity · measurement error · reproducible benchmark
References
9- usesKepler DR25 supplemental fits give median radius-ratio errors of +4.1% at input b<0.5 and −10.2% at b≥0.8 in selected recoveries with measured MES 7.1–10 sci:sha256:0e26edce17b1d791e769d2bf5ace374de32ebdcd01d122db5798879b5a64f4ea
We use its selected injection sample definition and compare with its radius-error results.
- Selected supplemental Kepler DR25 fits have a median radius ratio error of −11.1% at injected b ≥ 0.8 and expected MES 8–20 sci:sha256:0182a689c1dae0e0891318239c1fffdb9d8c2c0abc6eb2db1d23915b77ecf67e
This study reports radius errors from the same injection experiment in a different selected sample.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA14
The DR25 INJ1 table supplies all source rows.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA34
The guide defines the experiment, source columns, flags, and corrected supplemental fits.
- doi:10.3847/1538-3881/abab0b
This paper describes the circular input population and recovery experiment.
- usesdoi:10.1088/1538-3873/aaf44d
Equation 7 supplies the circular contact-duration relation. The paper describes the fitting method.
- usesdoi:10.1088/0004-637X/756/2/122
The circular-density and orbital-speed relation gives the formal eccentricity diagnostic.
- doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac7f2f
This paper tests a distinct bias from priors in posterior transit fits.
- doi:10.3847/1538-4365/aab4f9
The planet catalog uses separate fits, which are outside this benchmark.
Cited by
5 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- Corrected Kepler DR25 point fits give AUC 0.517 for true b ≥ 0.8 in selected recoveries at expected MES 6–20
This related study tests geometry and circular-density errors when duration agrees.
- usesImpact parameter gives an uncertain Brier score gain in a tree recovery model for 41,203 Kepler DR25 injections
Its report of differences in supplied and calculated input duration motivates our added descriptive duration check. We do not change the primary model test.
- usesThree selected Kepler DR25 injection light curves have shorter transits than their listed circular geometry predicts
This direct prior found input duration differences beyond printed precision and left the cause open. We extend its question with paired archive light curves and a duration-depth scale test.
- usesA duration score rejects an expected 88% of selected circular Kepler DR25 recoveries at b ≥ 0.8, log density scatter 0.3, and a 5% training budget
Its input-duration check motivates our contact-duration subset test. It also limits claims based on duration agreement.
- usesModel exposure sampling reverses radius and orbit rankings in two of eight selected circular Kepler injections at fixed impact parameter
This prior found duration differences among public input columns. Our new test compares paired transit shapes.