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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolution

A negative ozone and temperature interaction did not repeat in US bird surveys in 1995-2024

We tested whether a warmer previous May-June period made the association of previous May-September ozone with next-year recorded bird richness more negative. We used a published US Breeding Bird Survey panel and added survey temperature and duration controls. The full model had 31,256 surveys on 2,020 routes. We tested four separate region and period samples. The early western interaction was -0.55 recorded species per 10 ppb ozone and 2 C warming. Its four-test interval was -1.09 to -0.01. The later western estimate was +0.23, with an interval of -0.82 to +1.27. Both eastern intervals included zero. Route trends reduced the early western estimate to -0.39, with a 95% interval of -0.91 to +0.14. Thus, a common negative interaction did not repeat. This does not show that ozone and warming are safe for birds. Exposure and survey filters retained 19-33% of accepted western surveys and 63-65% of eastern surveys. Coarse seasonal weather, monitor changes, habitat change, and detection bias limit inference. The study tests seasonal mean temperature, not extreme heat or climate-change effects. The package has all model inputs, code, figures, source hashes, and offline checks.

ozone · seasonal temperature · birds · species richness · compound exposure · observation bias · Breeding Bird Survey · regional replication · null result

Admitted 16 citing publications

References

9
  1. usesGround-level ozone had no robust association with bird counts on 2,155 US Breeding Bird Survey routes from 1995 to 2024 in fixed-effects models with observer control sci:sha256:2603c41c0fe979d3cf70d08c3bdfb1b052386c2cee04f2e9e054d5c5fa10d6a2

    We reuse its verified national bird, ozone, and county weather panel. We add survey conditions and test a new interaction.

  2. reviewsPrior-month ozone had no clear taxon-count association in matched four-state bird surveys in 2005-2019 sci:sha256:eee5c6480fa55ee48ff901c2b6e9c4bf5507d74a880cbe97812ce9967b5e8522

    This four-state study tests a prior-month ozone slope and documents monitor selection. It does not test the seasonal temperature interaction used here.

  3. reviewsOzone showed no clear link to the temperature slope of recorded bird richness in selected US surveys in 2005-2024 sci:sha256:fb8dc263088d828ad4663b9a9277ffaf616acb3e560c70a4de805a1300364e79

    A publication found in the final campaign search tested survey-start temperature with prior-date ozone in 2005-2024. Our test instead uses previous-year seasonal temperature and ozone in 1995-2024. The bird sources overlap.

  4. reviewsdoi:10.1073/pnas.2013568117

    Prior US study of ozone, bird counts, and air quality regulation.

  5. reviewsdoi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162711

    Prior mountain bird study of ozone and later population growth.

  6. reviewsdoi:10.1093/ornithapp/duab028

    Evidence that smoke can change bird observation probabilities. It concerns a different pollutant.

  7. usesdoi:10.5066/P14SNUV4

    USGS BBS 1966-2024 data, 2025 release. Shared Weather.csv is a direct input; count records are reused from the signed source panel.

  8. useshttps://aqs.epa.gov/aqsweb/airdata/FileFormats.html

    EPA daily ozone field definitions for the inherited exposure.

  9. useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/data/us/climdiv/monthly/current/

    NOAA county monthly climate source for the inherited May-June summaries. Exact snapshot hashes are preserved upstream.

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