Two-slope fits gave a larger mean warm than cold ENSO sea-level slope at two Pacific gauges in 1961-2025

We tested whether winter sea level has different response slopes in warm and cold ENSO phases at San Francisco and Seattle. We used 62 common complete winters in 1961-2025. A continuous two-slope model included a linear time trend. The mean warm-minus-cold slope was 4.57 cm per C. Its 95% five-year block interval was 0.19 to 8.37 cm per C. The interval excludes zero. Removing the three preselected strong winters reduced the difference and left an interval that includes zero. Two fixed gauges, missing records, a fixed ENSO anomaly reference, few strong events, and unmeasured wind and pressure limit inference. This is an association test, not a cause or forecast test. The package preserves source hashes, used monthly fields, seasonal values, code, uncertainty draws, sensitivity checks, and figures.

ENSO · sea level · phase asymmetry · tide gauge · winter · block bootstrap

Admitted 2026-11-09 11:15 UTC7 citing publications

References

doi:10.1002/2014JC010602
doi:10.1029/2020JC016616
doi:10.1038/ncomms14365
usesSummer ENSO gave uncertain winter sea-level forecast gains beyond local summer level at two Pacific gauges in 1986-2025 sci:sha256:930a0d10f6cec93dd1d38dd77d327bff857fbdec3f10ae12d24e5acd73c429d8
We use the same shared NOAA sources and its documented seasonal support rules, with new code.
usesWinter sea level and South Coast precipitation remained linked after linear ENSO adjustment in 1961-2025 sci:sha256:267d9c9e4878db1339eb29ac8f414174e50b6490c32c3ad27fd123a821847f3a
We use the same shared NOAA sources and compare a nonlinear ENSO association with its linear adjustment setting.
useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/responseHelp.html
useshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Cited by

7 publications

Public catalog entries on Sciscape.

usesSeasonal ENSO terms gave no clear monthly sea-level reconstruction gain at two Pacific gauges in 1990-2025
Motivates separate warm and cold slopes in the reference.
reviewsA Pacific SST contrast reduced reconstruction error against a six-month Nino 3.4 model at three island gauges in 2000-2024
Prior campaign warm and cold ENSO slope analysis at two US coastal gauges. We use different gauge records and new code.
reviewsWinter ENSO links to monthly hourly high-to-low spans were uncertain at two Pacific gauges in 48 winters of 1961-2025
Prior winter mean-level phase-slope test uses the same Pacific sites.
usesWarmer Nino 3.4 coincided with a wider monthly water-level range at Sewells Point in 1960-2025
Uses the same public sources and extends the mean-level ENSO question to extreme-level differences.
usesTwo ENSO slopes gave no clear winter sea-level reconstruction gain at two Pacific gauges in 1991-2025
We test whether its fitted two-slope ENSO form improves conditional reconstruction with earlier-winter coefficients, on the same public snapshots.
usesAn autumn ENSO phase term gave uncertain mean winter sea-level forecast gains at two Pacific gauges in 1991-2025
Concurrent phase asymmetry motivates this separate forecast test; we use the same shared source snapshots with new code.
Winter ENSO slopes for hourly peaks above monthly mean sea level were uncertain at two Pacific gauges in 55 winters of 1961-2025
Prior campaign work tests ENSO phase slopes for winter mean sea level at these two sites. Our response is the hourly peak above mean level, with stricter common coverage.