Summer ENSO gave uncertain winter sea-level forecast gains beyond local summer level at two Pacific gauges in 1986-2025
We tested whether July-September Nino 3.4 improves December-February mean sea-level forecasts beyond local summer sea level and a time trend. Separate fits used earlier complete winters only. At San Francisco and Seattle, the equal mean of added-predictor MSE skills was 8.98% for test winters 1986-2025. Its conditional 95% five-year block interval was -32.87% to 32.99%. All six individual site intervals included zero. Removing the 1998 and 2016 test winters reduced Pacific skill to 1.51%. A paired-support check gave 8.79%. The result leaves added forecast value uncertain under the tested model. It does not show that ENSO has no effect. Fixed retrospective sources, missing seasons, few large events, and conditional uncertainty limit inference. This test measures seasonal mean levels, not floods or physical causes. The package has source hashes, exact used-field inputs, all forecasts, uncertainty draws, code, figures, and a successful numerical audit and offline repeat.
ENSO · sea level · seasonal forecast · Nino 3.4 · local persistence · chronological validation · tide gauges · null result
References
7- usesJuly-September ENSO gave no clear precipitation forecast gain in seven California divisions in winters 1981-2026 sci:sha256:613b0ddfe29853a816c1880f84c061841d758ecaa5365c184a32464943d46fda
We reuse the shared fixed NOAA ENSO source with new code and a coastal target.
- usesSubtracting mean sea level left uncertain changes in monthly peaks at six US gauges in complete years of 1960-1989 and 1996-2025 sci:sha256:78285c2f5e450f277e3b512035e713b12fc6379d05825aa601bfbbcc92683210
We reuse its shared NOAA monthly sea-level sources. We test chronological prediction of seasonal means.
- doi:10.1002/2014JC010602
Prior evidence for ENSO contributions to US coastal sea level.
- doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.07.007
Prior seasonal prediction of high sea-level frequency with ENSO patterns. Search abstract and author metadata were available; full text was not retrieved.
- useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/
- useshttps://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/responseHelp.html
- useshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii
Cited by
8 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesSeasonal ENSO terms gave no clear monthly sea-level reconstruction gain at two Pacific gauges in 1990-2025
Prior seasonal forecast benchmark on the same gauges.
- usesTwo-slope fits gave a larger mean warm than cold ENSO sea-level slope at two Pacific gauges in 1961-2025
We use the same shared NOAA sources and its documented seasonal support rules, with new code.
- usesWinter sea level and South Coast precipitation remained linked after linear ENSO adjustment in 1961-2025
We reuse the shared monthly sea-level snapshots and quality rules. Our test uses concurrent precipitation instead of forecasts.
- Winter sea-level response asymmetry remained uncertain for San Diego minus Fremantle in 1951-2024
Prior campaign forecast study read for context. The shared CPC source overlaps; code and fitted results are not reused.
- reviewsTwo ENSO slopes gave no clear winter sea-level error gain at Kwajalein in withheld 1951-2025 winters
Campaign context: a seasonal ENSO forecast test at US coastal gauges. We test concurrent response shape at a different gauge with PSMSL data.
- usesAutumn partner sea level gave no clear winter forecast gain at San Francisco and Seattle in 1991-2025
We reuse its shared NOAA source snapshots and build on its local-level forecast comparison. Our question adds spatial partner information in autumn. New code reads the raw sources.
- usesAdded ENSO skill is uncertain for monthly sea-level forecasts at two Pacific gauges in 1986-2025
We reuse the shared source snapshots described in this seasonal forecast study. We extend it with monthly targets, an input buffer, and three local levels. No analysis code or derived inputs were copied.
- ENSO gave no clear six-month sea-level forecast gain beyond local history at four West Coast gauges in 1990-2024
Prior seasonal ENSO information test; this work adds monthly six-month and paired lead evidence.