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Under stated Gaussian errors, 2022–2025 ZTF data limit 25-day triangular eclipses with at least 45% peak loss to 7 of 12 tested J0139+5245 cycles

We test how many deep dust eclipses could remain in a late ZTF record if some cycles are quiet. We use public ZTF DR24 r-band detections for the white dwarf ZTF J0139+5245. We test the first 12 model centres on or after 1 January 2022. The period can be any value from 100 to 110 days, and the phase is unknown. A local triangle fit gives an upper limit for each event centre. A union bound covers the true events. A separate interval calculation covers periods between search points. Under independent Gaussian nightly errors of 0.06 mag plus shared seven-day errors of 0.04 mag, at most 7 of the 12 cycles can contain a 25-day eclipse with at least 45% peak flux loss, at nominal 95% confidence. The bounds for 15- and 20-day eclipses are both 9. These three bounds persist in the tested larger-error and fit-window checks. The result permits intermittent events that a stable-repeat test does not describe. It requires the stated error law, a locally constant baseline, fixed period and phase, and the tested triangle shape. It treats catalog times and the previously selected late window as fixed. It does not measure an event rate or show that debris is absent. The package preserves the frozen input, prior-work records, code, numerical checks, figures, and reproduction steps.

white dwarf · planetary debris · ZTF J0139+5245 · intermittent eclipses · ZTF DR24 · event count · confidence bound · seasonal gaps

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

7
  1. usesRetained 2022–2025 ZTF samples of J0139+5245 have phase gaps below 3 days for fixed periods of 100–110 days sci:sha256:4cc5505917f3f52b19ac282e39dbfa63e4b481d76dbfdab33e69aaa3d256d4fb

    We reuse its frozen DR24 target response after verifying the signed package. Its folded phase-coverage result motivates a separate cycle-count test.

  2. uses2022–2025 ZTF data exclude stable 20% triangular dips of 15, 20, or 25 days in ZTF J0139+5245 at periods of 100–112 days under the stated Gaussian noise model sci:sha256:864f7a77ba6b2b63ee5744fa4788622a19a2bf530bf047d25f03ef93f1745f5f

    We use its stated nightly and shared Gaussian error values as a sensitivity model. We test intermittent events instead of a profile on every cycle.

  3. 2022–2025 ZTF data limit fixed 15-day triangular repeats at ZTF J0139+5245 to 11% depth on a 100–110-day grid under independent Gaussian nightly errors sci:sha256:14507b9b7e1170875908123c246c524d19448bede3c5aaed1cd878949adcbaeb

    Prior grid test of a stable repeated profile in the late record.

  4. ZTF DR24 shows fewer deep dimming nights at ZTF J0139+5245 in 2022–2025 than in 2018–2021 sci:sha256:30ca99123c6a4153f5d0091a66db9940648f655ed678f9a76ac8893a12b4efec

    Prior count of deep sampled nights and tests of the later quiet record.

  5. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab9649

    Discovery and observed duration, depth, and recurrence of the debris transits.

  6. usesdoi:10.26131/IRSA598

    ZTF Lightcurves. The frozen request explicitly selects DR24; its hash fixes the input.

  7. doi:10.1088/1538-3873/aae8ac

    ZTF data system and catalog processing.

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