Four-state bird counts showed small adjusted temperature slopes in 1990-2024
We tested survey temperature and recorded bird taxa in California, Oregon, New York, and Pennsylvania. We used accepted Breeding Bird Survey runs and 7,068 consecutive-year pairs with the same route and observer. We fit separate first-difference models in western and eastern states for 1990-2006 and 2007-2024. We adjusted for date, time, duration, assistant status, observer experience, wind, sky, and state-year effects. Slopes ranged from 0.06 to 0.35 additional recorded taxa per 5 C higher start temperature. All point estimates were positive. None excluded zero after correction for four tests. All four corrected intervals were within -1 to +1 taxon per 5 C under the model. Three sensitivity checks gave the same broad result. These are conditional weather associations in accepted survey conditions. They cannot separate detection from ecological change. Missing data, roadside sampling, observer changes, and dependence across routes limit inference. We did not test pollution, extreme heat, long-term warming, or species loss. The package includes code, source hashes, filtered records, model designs, uncertainty estimates, and offline reproduction instructions.
biodiversity · Breeding Bird Survey · weather · temperature · observation bias · recorded taxa · first differences · null result
References
3- usesdoi:10.5066/P14SNUV4
Archived BBS release for 1966-2024. Weather.csv gives count totals, observer IDs, survey conditions, and weather.
- reviewshttps://www.usgs.gov/publications/bird-activity-levels-related-weather
Prior BBS work on weather, bird activity, and count results.
- reviewsdoi:10.3389/fevo.2021.671492
Prior repeated-count study of bird detection and weather in European habitats.
Cited by
15 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsTemperature gaps had no clear link to recorded taxon change in four-state bird surveys in 1990-2024
Published campaign work that tests richness on overlapping surveys. The reused parser was first developed there.
- reviewsA positive wind and temperature term did not repeat across four US bird richness samples in 1990-2025
Prior same-observer temperature and richness audit motivates the interaction test. The source release and geographic scope differ; many underlying surveys overlap.
- reviewsLarger wind rises were linked to lower late-stop taxon counts in three of four US bird samples in 1997-2025
Prior four-state matched-year temperature analysis informs the design. We rebuild from the newer release and use stop-level outcomes.
- reviewsAssistant-report selection gave no clear change in temperature curvature in Canada and US bird surveys in 1985-2024
- usesA bird survey-temperature slope change above 15 C was clear only in the later western US sample in 1990-2024
We reuse its verified filtered survey panel and original source provenance. We test a change of slope above 15 C rather than a single mean temperature slope.
- reviewsAssistant-report selection gave no clear temperature-slope change in Canada and US bird surveys in 1985-2024
Its temperature models require assistant status. We test the sensitivity to that reporting rule, with a newer source release and national samples. We do not reuse its code or estimates.
- reviewsAssistant status gave no clear temperature-slope difference in Canada and US bird surveys in 1985-2024
Earlier weather study controlled assistant status but did not test its temperature interaction.
- reviewsA negative temperature-wind interaction did not repeat in matched North American bird surveys in 1981-2024
We extend its matched-pair temperature design to a temperature-wind product across North America.
- reviewsStandardization to 50 counted birds reduced negative survey-end temperature slopes in US taxon richness in 1985-2024
Related full-survey temperature test. Our endpoint outcome and count standardization ask a different question.
- usesPrior-month ozone had no clear taxon-count association in matched four-state bird surveys in 2005-2019
We reuse its filtered bird records, source metadata, and filter code. We add ozone exposure and test a new association.
- reviewsStart warmth gave no clear adjusted run-rejection link in four Canada and US bird samples in 1997-2025
Prior campaign test measured temperature slopes of recorded taxa in accepted runs from an older release. This study measures run rejection in the 2026 release.
- usesFour-state bird records gave uncertain negative wind slopes in matched surveys from 1990-2024
We adapt its public parsing and matching code, reuse its source metadata, and use its region and period design for a new wind test.
- usesPrior and later ozone slopes were not clearly different in four-state bird counts in 2005-2019
This is the source of the upstream bird filters and base records, obtained through the ozone publication.
- usesMorning temperature rise gave no clear taxon-count slope in four US bird survey samples in 1990-2024
We adapt its raw-data filters, observer matching and first-difference controls. We use a newer release and test end-minus-start temperature at fixed mean, rather than start temperature.
- reviewsOzone showed no clear link to the temperature slope of recorded bird richness in selected US surveys in 2005-2024
Prior same-source richness and survey temperature study.