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DOISST v2.1 input changes put steps of up to x3 into 1982-2024 SST front statistics that ESA CCI v3 lacks; CCI steps at its own sensor changes, and with step terms both agree on small trends

8 citing publications

Question: Earlier studies found that satellite input changes in NOAA DOISST v2.1 cause step losses of fast temporal SST variance. Do the same changes put steps into spatial statistics (gradients, fronts, small-scale variance), and what trend remains? Approach: We calculated daily gradient, front-fraction, sub-1-degree variance and structure-function statistics of DOISST (0.25 degree, 1982-2025, 28,458 ice-free 1-degree cells, 60S-60N). We compared them with ESA SST CCI Analysis v3.0.1 on the same 113,702 pixels on every 5th day (1982-01-01 to 2024-06-22). We tested steps with placebo dates, fitted trends with step terms at each product's input-change dates, and tested this adjustment with random dates. Results: On the documented change to Navy AVHRR (2007-01-01), the DOISST fraction of zonal gradients above 4 K per 100 km increased x2.6 (60S-60N) and x3.0 (western boundary currents); the 28-km structure function at these currents increased x1.7. CCI did not change (x0.96 to x1.03; placebo fractions 0.42 to 0.86). DOISST also steps in 1985 and mid-2020. The raw 1982-2023 trend of the global mean gradient was -0.031 ln units per decade in DOISST and +0.024 in CCI; the strong-front trend was +0.34 and +0.17. CCI has its own steps at dates that agree with NOAA-9, ATSR-1, the loss of AATSR and the two SLSTR launches. With step terms, the median DOISST-CCI trend difference over 41 statistic-region pairs fell from 0.068 to 0.022 ln units per decade; 200 random date sets gave a median of 0.136, and none was below 0.022. Adjusted trends are small: strong fronts +0.04 to +0.06 per decade, no detectable trend of the mean western-boundary-current gradient, and +0.03 to +0.05 for the 445-km structure function at 60S-20S. In a published Japan/East Sea Subpolar Front metric, the DOISST 1985-2020 trend (+0.23 K per 100 km per decade) is a 2007 step; about half of it is absent in CCI. Conclusion: Front and gradient trends from DOISST are mostly input-change artifacts, and CCI is not homogeneous either. Limitations: no in situ reference for gradients; CCI has zonal statistics only on one row per degree; some step dates come from change-point search; tropical adjusted trends still disagree.

sea surface temperature · ocean fronts · SST gradient · OISST · DOISST · ESA SST CCI · data homogeneity · observing system change · structure function · western boundary currents · change points · climate data record · AVHRR · ATSR · SLSTR · Subpolar Front · Japan/East Sea

References

11
  1. uses, supportsESA CCI v3 and buoys show no 1982-2023 change in the slow decay of daily SST anomalies; DOISST v2.1 variance steps cause half its memory trend, its slow-decay rise and a false variance fall
  2. supportsMost of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST memory in DOISST v2.1 is a loss of fast variance that steps at satellite input changes and is absent in 34 NDBC buoys
  3. supportsStep changes in OISST v2.1 product noise cause most of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST-anomaly persistence; 126 moored buoys show no clear rise
  4. reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41558-025-02245-w
  5. reviews, challengesdoi:10.3389/fmars.2022.1038024
  6. usesdoi:10.5285/4a9654136a7148e39b7feb56f8bb02d2
  7. usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-024-03147-w
  8. usesdoi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1
  9. usesdoi:10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1
  10. useshttps://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.oisst.v2.highres/
  11. useshttps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst

Cited by

8 publications
  1. The 2021 DOISST v2.1 input change causes 23-60% of the 2023 marine heatwave duration excess at 60S-60N; 2023 stays the record year, and the noise hid its peak-intensity record
  2. A five-shift fit reduced 2024-2025 buoy-change error where a variance match raised it at 30 OISST moorings reviews
  3. OISST response to daily buoy temperature changes rose across 2007 but fell by one third between 2016-2019 and 2022-2025 reviews
  4. ERA5 SST day-to-day variance rose 4.9-fold at the 2007 HadISST2-to-OSTIA switch and biases its heatwave trends; with one common noise spectrum ERA5 and OISST agree on detrended trends (60S-60N)
  5. The recent drop in one-day OISST persistence error was much smaller with buoy verification at 67 stations reviews
  6. Heatwave area in patches of at least one million km2 keeps a positive 1982-2025 trend under 0.14 C SST changes in a one-degree OISST sample reviews
  7. Noise steps cause 30-55% of the 1982-2025 marine heatwave duration rise in OISST v2.1, hide a peak-intensity rise and reverse the cold-spell duration trend at 60S-60N; heatwave-day trends are robust
  8. DOISST v2.1 noise steps make 1985-2023 coral heat-stress (DHW) trends 11-16% too low at 1,763 reef pixels; mean-warming differences between products are a larger uncertainty