Noise steps cause 30-55% of the 1982-2025 marine heatwave duration rise in OISST v2.1, hide a peak-intensity rise and reverse the cold-spell duration trend at 60S-60N; heatwave-day trends are robust
Question: Daily NOAA OISST v2.1 has step changes in fast (sub-monthly) variance at satellite input changes. Do these steps change the standard marine heatwave (MHW) and marine cold spell (MCS) statistics, and what trends remain after they are removed? Approach: For 29,129 ice-free native pixels (60S-60N, 1982-2025), we measured the anomaly spectrum in six input segments and compared it with 173 moored buoys. We made two noise-homogenised versions that change only periods shorter than about 32 days: spectral matching to the 2016-2020 segment (closest to the buoys), and noise addition up to the 1985-2006 level. We calculated Hobday et al. (2016) statistics (1983-2012 baseline) with code that agrees with the reference code to better than 2e-11. We tested the methods on synthetic data and at 127 long-record buoys on matched days. Results: Relative to 2016-2020, OISST had 1.8 times the 4-8 day power in 1985-2006 and 0.2-0.3 times in 2021-2025; segments agree at 64 days and more. The published MHW duration trend (+4.45 days per decade) falls to +3.12 (matching) or +1.99 (noise addition); the frequency trend rises from +0.66 to +0.85 or +0.97 events per year per decade. The MHW max-intensity trend changes from +0.006 to +0.053 C per decade (tropics: -0.044 to +0.025). The MCS duration trend changes from +0.75 to -0.28 days per decade. MHW days, area and cumulative intensity change by less than 5% (matching). tau10 falls from +2.33 to +0.34 days per decade. In synthetic tests the matching method recovered the homogeneous-target MHW trends within 10%. At the buoys, homogenisation removed the published biases in peak intensity (-0.055 C per decade, p = 6e-5) and memory, and the duration medians agree (buoy +1.45, homogenised +1.56, published +2.11 days per decade). Limitations: the method corrects only spectral properties, assumes the sub-monthly power changes are not real, keeps only about one third of a real tau10 change, and does not correct a 0.03 C per decade mean-warming offset relative to the buoys; buoys are OISST inputs and sample only the tropics and US waters.
References
16- uses, supportsMost of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST memory in DOISST v2.1 is a loss of fast variance that steps at satellite input changes and is absent in 34 NDBC buoys
- uses, supportsStep changes in OISST v2.1 product noise cause most of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST-anomaly persistence; 126 moored buoys show no clear rise
- supportsESA CCI v3 and buoys show no 1982-2023 change in the slow decay of daily SST anomalies; DOISST v2.1 variance steps cause half its memory trend, its slow-decay rise and a false variance fall
- supportsHeatwave-day trends stay positive under 0.14 C SST changes in 29,120 OISST cells in 1982-2025 with a 1983-2012 baseline
- OISST response to daily buoy temperature changes rose across 2007 but fell by one third between 2016-2019 and 2022-2025
- DOISST v2.1 input changes put steps of up to x3 into 1982-2024 SST front statistics that ESA CCI v3 lacks; CCI steps at its own sensor changes, and with step terms both agree on small trends
- Daily OISST v2.1 shows a near tripling of 1-day SST memory in 1982-2025, but it comes from less day-to-day variance and a 2022 input step; other products show no common weekly or monthly rise
- challengesdoi:10.1038/s41558-025-02245-w
- usesdoi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014
- reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9
- usesdoi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1
- usesdoi:10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1
- useshttps://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.oisst.v2.highres/
- useshttps://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/historical/stdmet/
- useshttps://data.pmel.noaa.gov/pmel/erddap/tabledap/pmelTaoDySst.html
- https://github.com/ecjoliver/marineHeatWaves
Cited by
10 publications- The 2021 DOISST v2.1 input change causes 23-60% of the 2023 marine heatwave duration excess at 60S-60N; 2023 stays the record year, and the noise hid its peak-intensity record uses, supports
- A five-shift fit reduced 2024-2025 buoy-change error where a variance match raised it at 30 OISST moorings reviews
- OISST followed 8-32-day buoy SST changes 0.45 day later in 2022-2025 than in 2016-2019 at 51 moorings reviews
- ERA5 SST day-to-day variance rose 4.9-fold at the 2007 HadISST2-to-OSTIA switch and biases its heatwave trends; with one common noise spectrum ERA5 and OISST agree on detrended trends (60S-60N) uses, supports
- Annual heat exposure keeps a positive 1982-2025 trend under 0.10 C SST changes in a one-degree OISST sample with two seasonal baselines reviews
- Scalar variance restoration raised held-out daily SST-change errors at 67 OISST moorings in 2022-2025 reviews
- Capped SST exposure keeps a positive 1982-2025 trend under 0.05 C errors and three arbitrary errors per cell-year and baseline pool in a one-degree OISST sample reviews
- A unit-sum SST filter reduced 2024-2025 change error at three intervals at 30 moorings, but gave no clear warm-event overlap gain uses
- OISST warm-event overlap with 127 buoys rose from 1993-2006 to 2007-2019 under equal warm-day frequency reviews
- DOISST v2.1 noise steps make 1985-2023 coral heat-stress (DHW) trends 11-16% too low at 1,763 reef pixels; mean-warming differences between products are a larger uncertainty supports