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Noise steps cause 30-55% of the 1982-2025 marine heatwave duration rise in OISST v2.1, hide a peak-intensity rise and reverse the cold-spell duration trend at 60S-60N; heatwave-day trends are robust

10 citing publications

Question: Daily NOAA OISST v2.1 has step changes in fast (sub-monthly) variance at satellite input changes. Do these steps change the standard marine heatwave (MHW) and marine cold spell (MCS) statistics, and what trends remain after they are removed? Approach: For 29,129 ice-free native pixels (60S-60N, 1982-2025), we measured the anomaly spectrum in six input segments and compared it with 173 moored buoys. We made two noise-homogenised versions that change only periods shorter than about 32 days: spectral matching to the 2016-2020 segment (closest to the buoys), and noise addition up to the 1985-2006 level. We calculated Hobday et al. (2016) statistics (1983-2012 baseline) with code that agrees with the reference code to better than 2e-11. We tested the methods on synthetic data and at 127 long-record buoys on matched days. Results: Relative to 2016-2020, OISST had 1.8 times the 4-8 day power in 1985-2006 and 0.2-0.3 times in 2021-2025; segments agree at 64 days and more. The published MHW duration trend (+4.45 days per decade) falls to +3.12 (matching) or +1.99 (noise addition); the frequency trend rises from +0.66 to +0.85 or +0.97 events per year per decade. The MHW max-intensity trend changes from +0.006 to +0.053 C per decade (tropics: -0.044 to +0.025). The MCS duration trend changes from +0.75 to -0.28 days per decade. MHW days, area and cumulative intensity change by less than 5% (matching). tau10 falls from +2.33 to +0.34 days per decade. In synthetic tests the matching method recovered the homogeneous-target MHW trends within 10%. At the buoys, homogenisation removed the published biases in peak intensity (-0.055 C per decade, p = 6e-5) and memory, and the duration medians agree (buoy +1.45, homogenised +1.56, published +2.11 days per decade). Limitations: the method corrects only spectral properties, assumes the sub-monthly power changes are not real, keeps only about one third of a real tau10 change, and does not correct a 0.03 C per decade mean-warming offset relative to the buoys; buoys are OISST inputs and sample only the tropics and US waters.

marine heatwaves · marine cold spells · sea surface temperature · OISST · DOISST · data homogeneity · observing system change · spectral matching · heatwave duration · heatwave intensity · SST persistence · moored buoys · NDBC · TAO/TRITON · climate data record · extremes

References

16
  1. uses, supportsMost of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST memory in DOISST v2.1 is a loss of fast variance that steps at satellite input changes and is absent in 34 NDBC buoys
  2. uses, supportsStep changes in OISST v2.1 product noise cause most of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST-anomaly persistence; 126 moored buoys show no clear rise
  3. supportsESA CCI v3 and buoys show no 1982-2023 change in the slow decay of daily SST anomalies; DOISST v2.1 variance steps cause half its memory trend, its slow-decay rise and a false variance fall
  4. supportsHeatwave-day trends stay positive under 0.14 C SST changes in 29,120 OISST cells in 1982-2025 with a 1983-2012 baseline
  5. OISST response to daily buoy temperature changes rose across 2007 but fell by one third between 2016-2019 and 2022-2025
  6. DOISST v2.1 input changes put steps of up to x3 into 1982-2024 SST front statistics that ESA CCI v3 lacks; CCI steps at its own sensor changes, and with step terms both agree on small trends
  7. Daily OISST v2.1 shows a near tripling of 1-day SST memory in 1982-2025, but it comes from less day-to-day variance and a 2022 input step; other products show no common weekly or monthly rise
  8. challengesdoi:10.1038/s41558-025-02245-w
  9. usesdoi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014
  10. reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9
  11. usesdoi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1
  12. usesdoi:10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1
  13. useshttps://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.oisst.v2.highres/
  14. useshttps://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/historical/stdmet/
  15. useshttps://data.pmel.noaa.gov/pmel/erddap/tabledap/pmelTaoDySst.html
  16. https://github.com/ecjoliver/marineHeatWaves

Cited by

10 publications
  1. The 2021 DOISST v2.1 input change causes 23-60% of the 2023 marine heatwave duration excess at 60S-60N; 2023 stays the record year, and the noise hid its peak-intensity record uses, supports
  2. A five-shift fit reduced 2024-2025 buoy-change error where a variance match raised it at 30 OISST moorings reviews
  3. OISST followed 8-32-day buoy SST changes 0.45 day later in 2022-2025 than in 2016-2019 at 51 moorings reviews
  4. ERA5 SST day-to-day variance rose 4.9-fold at the 2007 HadISST2-to-OSTIA switch and biases its heatwave trends; with one common noise spectrum ERA5 and OISST agree on detrended trends (60S-60N) uses, supports
  5. Annual heat exposure keeps a positive 1982-2025 trend under 0.10 C SST changes in a one-degree OISST sample with two seasonal baselines reviews
  6. Scalar variance restoration raised held-out daily SST-change errors at 67 OISST moorings in 2022-2025 reviews
  7. Capped SST exposure keeps a positive 1982-2025 trend under 0.05 C errors and three arbitrary errors per cell-year and baseline pool in a one-degree OISST sample reviews
  8. A unit-sum SST filter reduced 2024-2025 change error at three intervals at 30 moorings, but gave no clear warm-event overlap gain uses
  9. OISST warm-event overlap with 127 buoys rose from 1993-2006 to 2007-2019 under equal warm-day frequency reviews
  10. DOISST v2.1 noise steps make 1985-2023 coral heat-stress (DHW) trends 11-16% too low at 1,763 reef pixels; mean-warming differences between products are a larger uncertainty supports