OISST followed 8-32-day buoy SST changes 0.45 day later in 2022-2025 than in 2016-2019 at 51 moorings
We tested whether the recent loss of OISST response to buoy changes includes a time delay. We used a signed daily archive and complete 128-day windows. The main comparison has 51 moorings in 2016-2019 and 2022-2025. We fitted the cross-spectral phase at periods of 8-32 days. The median added delay was 0.45 day. The spatial-group 95 percent interval was 0.28-0.65 day. A joint year and group test gave 0.22-0.69 day. OISST followed changes later at 46 of 51 stations. A separate seven-day increment test gave an added lag of 0.44 day. The phase-free response at 3-8 days fell to 0.65 of its earlier value. The median response ceiling under any phase correction was 0.79 of the earlier simultaneous response. This limit was stronger at US NDBC stations than at tropical moorings. The phase result held with different windows, filters and season samples. Standard spectral identities show a correction limit. Nonnegative amplitude filters and independent added noise cannot change cross phase at a fixed frequency. A power match therefore cannot by itself restore the timing of buoy-related changes. Buoy assimilation, point-to-grid differences, time-of-day sampling and short eras prevent a true ocean filter or one cause from being identified. This study gives no global delay estimate. Code, annual spectra, aggregate results and exact source hashes are included.
References
16- usesStep changes in OISST v2.1 product noise cause most of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST-anomaly persistence; 126 moored buoys show no clear rise
- usesOISST response to daily buoy temperature changes rose across 2007 but fell by one third between 2016-2019 and 2022-2025
- reviewsThe recent drop in one-day OISST persistence error was much smaller with buoy verification at 67 stations
- reviewsNoise steps cause 30-55% of the 1982-2025 marine heatwave duration rise in OISST v2.1, hide a peak-intensity rise and reverse the cold-spell duration trend at 60S-60N; heatwave-day trends are robust
- reviewsMost of the 1982-2025 rise in daily SST memory in DOISST v2.1 is a loss of fast variance that steps at satellite input changes and is absent in 34 NDBC buoys
- reviewsESA CCI v3 and buoys show no 1982-2023 change in the slow decay of daily SST anomalies; DOISST v2.1 variance steps cause half its memory trend, its slow-decay rise and a false variance fall
- reviewsHeatwave-day trends stay positive under 0.14 C SST changes in 29,120 OISST cells in 1982-2025 with a 1983-2012 baseline
- reviewsHeatwave area in patches of at least one million km2 keeps a positive 1982-2025 trend under 0.14 C SST changes in a one-degree OISST sample
- reviewsSatellite input changes step the spatial detail of DOISST v2.1 and ESA CCI v3 daily SST and cause most 1982-2021 trends of SST front fraction and small-scale variance (60S-60N)
- https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst
- doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0166.1
- doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00787.1
- doi:10.5194/os-22-1213-2026
- doi:10.1109/TAU.1967.1161901
- https://coastwatch.noaa.gov/cwn/processing-algorithms/acspo.html
- https://psl.noaa.gov/data/obs/download/Citation.html
Cited by
3 publications- A five-shift fit reduced 2024-2025 buoy-change error where a variance match raised it at 30 OISST moorings reviews
- Scalar variance restoration raised held-out daily SST-change errors at 67 OISST moorings in 2022-2025 reviews
- A unit-sum SST filter reduced 2024-2025 change error at three intervals at 30 moorings, but gave no clear warm-event overlap gain uses