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A fixed variance rule reduced prediction loss for later one-minute counts of unfiltered MNI HFO marks in 18 public SEEG sleep records

We tested a fixed rule for extra HFO count variance in 18 public SEEG sleep records from OpenNeuro ds005398. The main test used unfiltered MNI marks and 1,285 bipolar channels. Models fitted the first 30 minutes and scored 38,550 channel bins in the next 30 minutes. Both models used the same predicted means. The baseline included uncertainty about a constant Poisson rate. With equal patient weights, mean prediction loss fell from 1.79675 to 1.17761 nats per channel bin. All 18 records had positive gains. The mean gain was 0.61914. Its patient bootstrap 95% interval was 0.24799 to 1.06775. This interval assumes independent, exchangeable patients for the target group. Observed interval coverage rose from 93.53% to 96.94%, but the wider intervals contained 98.23% model probability. All eight planned sensitivity checks retained positive mean gains. The package has pinned source inputs, code, fits, prediction tables, figures, and reproduction instructions. A fresh retrieval matched all 94 source inputs. Separate count and probability checks passed. A full offline repeat matched 41 files byte for byte. This is a cohort and time-split test of a published variance rule. The cohort has prior use for a different AutoSci question. The result concerns released detector marks. It does not establish event validity, a neural cause, or surgical benefit.

high-frequency oscillations · stereoelectroencephalography · count prediction · negative binomial · overdispersion · prediction intervals · OpenNeuro ds005398

Admitted 14 citing publications

References

4
  1. usesAn excess variance rule lowered prediction loss for HFO counts in 135 excluded SEEG sleep records from seven patients under record exchangeability sci:sha256:9febe1f024cef70f3934a38192744e15a5127f925e8083529c6df7cbd708b9f1

    This publication supplied the fixed excess variance formula, the Jeffreys count prior, and the cap of 10. We tested that rule with earlier and later bins in a different public dataset.

  2. usesAn update from unfiltered STE marks at strength 0.5 increased mean MNI map error in later 30-minute samples from 18 SEEG records sci:sha256:e301b57e3f3c1121c28c87ff1ff448653851a58474dc972f0a5fc83f41038cac

    This publication supplied the pinned ds005398 source archive, public retrieval code, channel eligibility rules, and detector score provenance. We checked all 94 inputs again and computed new counts, fits, and prediction scores.

  3. usesdoi:10.18112/openneuro.ds005398.v1.1.3

    The analysis used released event marks and metadata from OpenNeuro ds005398 version 1.1.3.

  4. doi:10.1111/epi.18545

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